Back to home pageUnited States of America (Washington, DC.) DEMOGRAPHY NOVEMBER 1992 - VOLUME 29, NUMBER 4 93.09.01 - English - Etienne van de WALLE, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.) Fertility Transition, Conscious Choice, and Numeracy (p. 487-502) One of the preconditions of the fertility transition, as stated by A.J. Coale, is that reproductive decisions must be within the calculus of conscious choice. It is suggested that the change in mentality which leads to family limitation includes "numeracy about children", a clear notion of what family size ought to be and the awareness of individuals of where they stand with respect to the norm. The article explores the hypothesis that numeracy about children appeared historically in various times and places, and that the conceptualization of family size was a necessary condition for adopting family limitation. (FAMILY PLANNING, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION) 93.09.02 - English - William G. AXINN, Department of Sociology, and Population Research Center, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (U.S.A.) Family Organization and Fertility Limitation in Nepal (p. 503-521) This paper uses the family mode of organization framework to link together hypotheses relating social change to fertility limitation. Experiences in nonfamily activities are predicted to affect fertility behavior, with the outcome depending on the social, economic, and cultural context. To provide individual- level tests of hypotheses, the paper uses data from a Nepalese community which recently began dramatic family and fertility transitions. The findings show that experiences in nonfamily activities before marriage increase the odds of subsequently adopting fertility limitation in this setting. The evidence also demonstrates the importance of including measures of husbands' experiences in models of fertility decisions. (NEPAL, FAMILY PLANNING, FAMILY) 93.09.03 - English - Karen OPPENHEIM MASON, Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu, HI 96848 (U.S.A.), and Karen KUHLTHAU, Massachusetts Department of Health, Boston, MA 02111 (U.S.A.) The Perceived Impact of Child Care Costs on Women's Labor Supply and Fertility (p. 523-543) In a sample of Detroit-area mothers of preschool-aged children interviewed in 1986, one-third reported that child care problems had constrained their employment. Such reports were relatively prevalent among poor women, those without relatives nearby, and those willing to entrust the care of their children to nonfamily members. Only one-tenth of the sample reported a similar child care constraint on fertility, a phenomenon unrelated to income but relatively prevalent among women with strong labor force attachment. The results suggest that policies to increase the supply of child care or to lower its cost could increase female labor supply by a substantial fraction, with an even greater rise among women most at risk of poverty and reliance on public assistance, but probably would not raise fertility significantly. (UNITED STATES, FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, CHILD CUSTODY) 93.09.04 - English - Oystein KRAVDAL, Section for Demography and Analysis of Living Conditions, Central Bureau of Statistics, Oslo (Norway) Forgone Labor Participation and Earning Due to Childbearing among Norwegian Women (p. 545-563) Individual-level retrospective data from the Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 are used to assess the time diverted from gainful employment because of the presence of children in two Norwegian birth cohorts. We find that a two-child mother born in 1950, whose births occurred in her early twenties, lost 6.6 woman-years up to age 37, compared to a childless woman. By matching information on registered income with the survey data, we estimate that her lost income amounts to $151,000 at 1990 prices. After taxation the loss is $98,000. Women with fewer than 12 years of schooling seem to forgo more labor market activity by reason of childbearing than do their better-educated counterparts. The pattern is less clear with respect to the loss of income. (NORWAY, FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, WOMEN'S STATUS) 93.09.05 - English - Bert KESTENBAUM, Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Baltimore, MD 21235 (U.S.A.) A Description of the Extreme Aged Population Based on Improved Medicare Enrollment Data (p. 565-580) The morality and size of the extreme aged population can be studied most accurately with Medicare enrollment data from the Social Security Administration's Master Beneficiary Record after certain types of questionable records are eliminated. With the improved data base we find that mortality rates at the very old ages are higher than published rates, we are more confident of the reality of the race crossover, and we can estimate the number of centenarians more accurately. Furthermore, a large matched-records study shows close agreement on age at death between the Master Beneficiary Record and the death certificate. (UNITED STATES, MORTALITY, AGEING, AGED) 93.09.06 - English - Antonio MC DANIEL, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.) Extreme Mortality in 19th-Century Africa: The Case of Liberian Immigrants (p. 581-594) Several studies have examined the mortality of immigrants from Europe to Africa in the 19th century. This paper examines the level of mortality in Liberia of Africans who emigrated there from the United States. A life table is estimated from data collected by the American Colonization Society from 1820 to 1843. The analysis reflects the mortality experience of a population that is transplanted from one disease environment to another, more exacting, disease environment. The results of this analysis show that these Liberian immigrants experienced the highest mortality rates in accurately recorded human history. (LIBERIA, UNITED STATES, MORTALITY, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION) 93.09.07 - English - Carl P. SCHMERTMANN, Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063 (U.S.A.) Immigrants' Ages and the Structure of Stationary Populations with Below-replacement Fertility (p. 595-612) A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates. (UNITED STATES, GERMANY, FERTILITY, IMMIGRATION POLICY) 93.09.08 - English - Ellen PERCY KRALY, Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY 13346 (U.S.A.), and Robert WARREN, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, Washington, DC 20536 (U.S.A.) Estimates of Long-Term Immigration to the United States: Moving US Statistics toward United Nations Concepts (p. 613-626) US immigration data are revised to reflect the UN demographic concept of long-term immigration. Long-term immigration is measured by the number of new immigrants (permanent resident aliens) arriving in the year, temporary migrant arrivals (non- immigrants) who subsequently adjust to permanent resident status, arrivals of asylees and refugees, and non-immigrants who arrive during the year and stay for more than 12 months before departing. The estimates of long-term immigration for 1983 are compared to official INS statistics on alien immigration. Significant differences emerge according to country of origin, age, and state of intended residence. A method of producing current estimates of long-term immigration is illustrated. (UNITED STATES, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION) FEBRUARY 1993 - VOLUME 30, NUMBER 1 93.09.09 - English - Saul D. HOFFMAN, Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716 (U.S.A.), E. Michael FOSTER, Institute for Public Policy Studies, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN 37203 (U.S.A.), and Franc F. FURSTENBERG Jr., Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (U.S.A.) Reevaluating the Costs of Teenage Childbearing (p. 1-13) Teenage childbearing in the United States has long been regarded as an important social problem with substantial costs to teen mothers and their children. Recently, however, several researchers have argued that the apparent negative effects of teenage childbearing primarily reflect unmeasured family background rather than the true consequences of a teen birth. To distinguish the effect of teen childbearing from that of family background, the authors use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and compare teen mothers with their sisters. They find that accounting for unobserved family background reduces, but does not eliminate, the estimated consequences of early childbearing. Statistically significant and quantitatively important effects of teen parenthood remain for high school graduation, family size, and economic well-being. (UNITED STATES, ADOLESCENTS, PREGNANCY) 93.09.10 - English - Guang GUO, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.) Use of Sibling Data to Estimate Family Mortality Effects in Guatemala (p. 15-32) This paper examines the potential bias in estimates of child mortality determinants produced by the questionable assumption that sibling data are independent, and estimates the unmeasured familial effects shared among siblings. The parameter estimates yielded by the multivariate hazard model are very similar to those yielded by the standard hazard model. The standard errors of the parameter estimates, however, tend to be underestimated in conventional analyses. The contribution to child mortality from the familial factors seems modest net of household socioeconomic status, at least in this Guatemalan data set. (GUATEMALA, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, SIBLINGS) 93.09.11 - English - Siān L. CURTIS, Ian DIAMOND and John W. McDONALD, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Southampton S09 5NH (U.K.) Birth Interval and Family Effects on Postneonatal Mortality in Brazil (p. 33-43) In this paper random-effects logistic models are used to analyzed the effects of the preceding birth interval on postneonatal mortality in Brazil, controlling for the correlation of survival outcomes between siblings. The results are compared to those obtained by using ordinary logistic regression. Family effects are found to be highly significant in the random-effects model, but the substantive conclusions of the ordinary logistic model are preserved. In particular, birth interval effects remain highly significant. (BRAZIL, BIRTH INTERVALS, POST-NEONATAL MORTALITY) 93.09.12 - English - Daniel R. MEYER, Institute for Research on Poverty, School of Social Work, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (U.S.A.) Child Support and Welfare Dynamics: Evidence from Wisconsin (p. 45-62) This paper provides estimates of the effect of child support on exiting and reentering welfare for a sample of divorced women in Wisconsin. Modest amounts of child support do not have large effects on exiting welfare in this sample. The percentage of women who return to welfare is higher than has been reported previously. Receiving child support significantly decreases the likelihood of returning to welfare. (UNITED STATES, BREADWINNERS, DEPENDENCY BURDEN, CHILDREN, CHILD CARE, DIVORCE) 93.09.13 - English - Linda S. ADAIR, Barry M. POPKIN and David K. GUILKEY, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997 (U.S.A.) The Duration of Breast-Feeding: How Is It Affected by Biological, Sociodemographic, Health Sector, and Food Industry Factors? (p. 63-80) Breast-feeding duration has important effects on a wide array of demographic and maternal and infant health outcomes. This study uses a discrete-time logit hazards model to explore the relationship of biological, sociodemographic, health sector, and food industry practices on the duration of full and partial breast-feeding in a sample of more than 2,600 infants from the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Food industry and health sector practices (such as distribution of free samples of infant formula), the mother's perception of being pregnant, infant fatness, and a set of standard sociodemographic factors all affect breast-feeding duration significantly. (PHILIPPINES, BREAST FEEDING, DEMOGRAPHY, HEALTH, FOOD) 93.09.14 - English - Ulla LARSEN, Department of Sociology, SUNY Stony Brook, NY 11794-4356 (U.S.A.), and James W. VAUPEL, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706 (U.S.A.) Hutterite Fecundability by Age and Parity: Strategies for Frailty Modeling of Event Histories (p. 81-102) Effective fecundability declines with age and parity. Furthermore, women differ in their effective fecundability: some women have persistently low or high monthly chances of live-birth conception. Estimates are presented concerning the magnitude of these effects in a natural-fertility population: 406 Hutterite women in North America who had 3,206 births, largely in the 1940s and 1950s. The estimates are based on models that incorporate the effects of persistent heterogeneity and that use the full information provided by multiple-spell duration data. In addition, hazards rather than probabilities are modeled, piecewise linear hazard functions are used, and age and parity effects are decomposed systematically. These methods permit the development of more elaborate models of changing fecundability and of heterogeneity in postpartum amenorrhea. (UNITED STATES, CANADA, FECUNDABILITY) 93.09.15 - English - Nancy S. LANDALE, Population Research Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (U.S.A.), and Stewart E. TOLNAY, Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12222 (U.S.A.) Generation, Ethnicity, and Marriage: Historical Patterns in the Northern United States (p. 103-126) Immigration was a prominent feature of American life during the early decades of the 20th century. About 40% of the white population was of foreign birth or parentage, and immigrants were increasingly from diverse national origins. Using data from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the 1910 US Census, the authors examine generational and ehtnic differences in marital timing. The analysis reveals a striking pattern of delayed marriage among native whites with foreign parents, but marked ethnic variation in the extent of marriage delay within the second generation. We hypothesize that locational factors, especially diverse economic opportunities, were important in shaping this marriage pattern. Separate multilevel analyses are conducted for females and for males living in urban and in rural places. Although significant effects for a variety of contextual factors are found, generational and ethnic differences in nuptial timing persist in multivariate models. (UNITED STATES, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MARRIAGE, ETHNICITY)
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