Back to home pageUnited States of America (New York) POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW MARCH 1992 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 1 93.17.01 - English - Bobbi S. LOW, Alice L. CLARKE and Kenneth A. LOCKRIDGE, School of Natural Resources, University of Michigan, Dana Building, 430 East University, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1115 (U.S.A.) Toward an Ecological Demography (p. 1-31) An innovative way of looking at demographic patterns is based on paradigms from the fields of behavioral and evolutionary ecology. Just as the analytic techniques of demography have been important to biological investigations, the theoretical advances of the last 25 years in biology may offer important perspectives on central problems in demography and provide paths to fruitful, ecologically informed solutions. The authors summarize the pertinent theory in behavioral ecology, highlight two important differences in the way biologists and demographers partition problems, and illustrate how behavioral ecology might contribute to a new understanding of several important issues in classical demography, namely natural versus controlled fertility, population regulations, and allocation of resources to offspring. 93.17.02 - English - Carla MAKHLOUF OBERMEYER, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Population Science, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (U.S.A.) Islam, Women, and Politics: The Demography of Arab Countries (p. 33-60) This article examines three propositions that underlie many interpretations of the demography of Arab countries: that Arab countries do poorly in terms of demographic indicators, that this is due to Islam, and that the impact of Islam operates through the way in which it defines a low status for women. After reviewing the available data on fertility and health, the article critically examines the claim that the high natality of Arab countries derives directly from religious doctrine, or indirectly through Islam's effect on the status of women. It argues that simplistic hypotheses linking Islam and the status of women cannot provide a satisfactory explanation for observed demographic patterns, and that a better understanding of demographic change must include attention to the political context of fertility and health behavior. 93.17.03 - English - Dominique MEEKERS, Department of Sociology, Pennsylvania State University, 206 Oswald Tower, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802-6507 (U.S.A.) The Process of Marriage in Africa Societies: A Multiple Indicator Approach (p. 61-78) This article demostrates the use of multiple indicators of union formation to study marriage customs in African marriage generally provide information only on type of union as self-reported, this study uses information from the 1980-81 Côte d'Ivoire Fertility Survey to develop a more detailed typology of marital unions based on the sequece of events in the union formation process. This new classification incorporates information on the processual nature of Ivorian unions and more adequately reflects the diversity of marital systems practiced in Côte d'Ivoire. 93.17.04 - English - John KNODEL, Napaporn CHAYOVAN and Siriwan SIRIBOON, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-2590 (U.S.A.) The Impact of Fertility Decline on Familial Support for the Elderly: An Illustration from Thailand (p. 79-103) The recent and substantial reduction in the number of children among couples in Thailand is commonly perceived to be one of the most important social changes likely to reduce the extent to which future generations of Thai elderly will be supported by their families. This analysis suggests that the impact of fertility decline per se will be relatively moderate with respect to coresidence, the most crucial aspect of familial support, despite an impending radical shift from the present situation, in which most Thai elderly have at least five children, to one where the large majority will have only two or three. Notwithstanding the very substantial fertility decline, few elderly are likely to be childless or to have only one child, and elderly parents with at least two children are still quite likely to live with one of them. An important implication of the study is that, in settings similar to Thailand, the negative effect of lower fertility on familial support for the elderly need not be an overriding concern when deciding whether or not to implement policies to reduce fertility. 93.17.05 - English - Nancy FOLBRE, 129 Chestnut Hill Loop, Montague, Massachusetts 01351 (U.S.A.) "The Improper Arts": Sex in Classical Political Economy (p. 105- 121) This essay explores the discourse on sexuality in classical British political economy. Bernard Mandeville, Adam Smith, and Robert Malthus accepted conventional standards of family law and sexual morality. They underestimated the influence of rational self-interest on the practice of sexual intercourse, and in some cases argued against its application there. Yet at least some political economists contested prevailing social norms and religious views. Jeremy Bentham defended the legitimacy of nonprocreative sexuality and protested the persecution of homosexuals, and Francis Place actively promoted contraception. These dissenters, advocates of "improper arts", deserve more recognition than they have traditionally received. By insisting that rational self-interest should rule reproduction as well as production, they expanded the scope of political economy. 93.17.06 - English - William H. FREY and Aldern SPEARE, Jr., Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109- 2590 (U.S.A.) The Revival of Metropolitan Population Growth in the United States: An Assessment of Findings from the 1990 Census (p. 129- 146) Findings from the 1990 US census reveal significant shifts in metropolitan population growth for the 1980-90 decade. Urbanization reasserted itself after the "rural renaissance" of the 1970s, which characterized spatial demographic patterns in a number of other industrialized countries as well? US metropolitan areas once again grew faster than nonmetropolitan areas, and the geography of metropolitan growth displayed some rearrangement. Rapid growth in the South and West continued, but its pace slowed considerably in the interior parts of these regions. Large coastal metropolitan areas showed the steadiest gains. In some respects, the new population shifts resemble pre-1970 redistribution patterns, while in other respects they reflect evolving changes in the industrial structures of today's developed countries. JUNE 1992 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 2 93.17.07 - English - John C. CALDWELL, I.O. ORUBULOYE and Pat CALDWELL, Health Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia) Fertility Decline in Africa: A New Type of Transition? (p. 211- 242) A number of recent surveys show that fertility has begun to decline in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Kenya, and southern Nigeria. This study of an urban area in southwest Nigeria confirms a fertility decline and throws light on the erosion of traditional supports for high fertility. The authors conclude that the sub-Saharan fertility transition is likely to differ during its early decades from the pattern established by the European and Asian transitions: the greatest demand for fertility control will come not from older women wishing to cease family building but from young married women who wish to maintain or lengthen traditional birth intervals even though the traditional mechanisms for achieving those ends are decaying. The onset of fertility decline is likely to be determined by the attainment of relatively low levels of infant and child mortality, substantial extension in female secondary education, an ample supply of contraceptives, and government leadership toward controlling family size. 93.17.08 - English - Pavalavalli GOVINDASAMY and Julie DA VANZO, Demographic and Health Surveys, Institute for Resource Development, 8850 Stanford Building, Columbia, MD 21045 (U.S.A.) Ethnicity and Fertility Differentials in Peninsular Malaysia: Do Policies Matter? (p. 243-267) While the fertility rate for Chinese and Indians in Peninsular Malaysia has declined steadily since the late 1950s, the rate for Malays has fallen more gradually and has leveled off since the late 1970s. This article examines the impact of government policies on ethnic differences in fertility in Peninsular Malaysia, using data from the First (1976) and Second (1988) Malaysian Family Life Surveys. The benefits accruing to the politically dominant Malays from the New Economic Policy, implemented in 1971, encouraged them to raise their desired fertility in response to the government's New Population Policy, introduced in 1982. The effects of the combination of these two policies provide an explanation for the diverging Malay-non-Malay fertility trends. 93.17.09 - English - Mayra BUVINIC, Juan Pablo VALENZUELA, Temistocles MOLINA and Electra GONZALEZ, International Center for Research on Women, 1717 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Suite 302, Washington, DC 20036 (U.S.A.) The Fortunes of Adolescent Mothers and their Children: The Transmission on Poverty in Santiago, Chile (p. 269-297) Six years after a group of low-income adolescent mothers in Santiago, Chile had given birth to their first child, 42% of the fathers had abandoned their children. The authors gathered retrospective life-histories on these mothers and used indicators of child well-being to examine patterns of family formation and the reproduction of poverty in mother-child pairs. While the extended family shalters mother and child, it does not seem to compensate for the cost, in terms of child well-being, of abandonment by the father. Mothers' additional years of schooling, however, and the percentage of family income they earn have a positive effect on their children, suggesting that improved educational and income-earning opportunities for young mothers can contain the intergenerational transmission of poverty. 93.17.10 - English - John BONGAARTS, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.) Population Growth and Global Warming (p. 299-319) Existing scientific assessments of the potential for climate change resulting from a manmade "greenhouse effect" have devoted relatively little attention to the role of demographic change. This study presents calculations that quantify the effects of population growth and other determinants of future emission rates of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas. An examination of the relative contributions of emissions from different world regions indicates that the developed countries have been the primary source of carbon dioxide in the past, but rapid population and economic growth in the developing world is expected to raise its emission rate above that of the industrialized countries during most of the 21st century. Stabilization of emissions from the developed world alone will therefore result in only a modest decline in the projected temperature rise over the next century; efforts to curb greenhouse gas production in the developing countries will also be necessary to limit global warming. 93.17.11 - English - Paul DEMENY, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.) Policies Seeking a Reduction of High Fertility: A Case for the Demand Side (p. 321-332) Of the two approaches to fertility policy in high fertility countries - one concerned with extending the supply of the means of fertility control available to interested individuals and the other with increasing the demand for those means - the latter continues to receive little attention. This note argues that such indifference is anomalous and discusses three reasons that explain the anomaly. Demand oriented fertility policies that call for a constitutional-structural approach in shaping development do not naturally mesh with the sectorally formulated programs favored by contemporary development policy. Periodic assessments of the effects of sectoral programs on demographically relevant incentives should suggest remedies for the resulting present neglect of the demand side in seeking lower fertility. 93.17.12 - English - Geoffrey MCNICOLL, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia) The United Nations' Long-range Population Projections (p. 333-340) Population projections to 2150 have been prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations, based on the Division's 1990 assessment of world population. These projections are described and compared to earlier UN secries and analogous projections published by the World Bank. In the medium variant, widely used as a "best guess" of the demographic future, world population reaches 10 billion by 2050 but adds only another 1.5 billion over the 100 years following. Low and high variant totals, defined by long-run fertility levels of 1.7 and 2.5 lifetime births per woman, are 8 and 12.5 billion in 2050 and 4 and 28 billion in 2150. SEPTEMBER 1992 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 3 93.17.13 - English - Geoffrey MCNICOLL, Demography Program, Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University, GPO Box 4, Canberra, ACT 2601 (Australia) The Agenda of Population Studies: A Commentary and Complaint (p. 399-420) Increasing technical sophistication in the analysis of population processes has been accompanied by an apparent lessening of interest by demographers in the larger related questions of social and behavioral change. It is argued that population studies contributes little to any cumulative social scientific enterprise and often fails to draw on potentially relevant advances in neighboring fields. With global demographic transition seen to be well underway, population studies has been content with a policy role marked chiefly by close attentiveness to existing antinatalist program operations. Yet the likelihood of departures from the smooth, surprise-free future of the standard medium- variant population projections is considerable. A more politically turbulent world and one with intractable economic and environmental instabilities may well be in store. Predictive capabilities claimed in the past, modest as they were, may overestimate what is possible. Population studies' agenda in theory, policy thinking, and even technical analysis should be based on a much wider-angled view of the future. 93.17.14 - English - Daniel Scott SMITH, Department of History, University of Illinois at Chicago, P.O. Box 4348, Chicago, Illinois 60680 (U.S.A.) The Meanings of Family and Household: Change and Continuity in the Mirror of the American Census (p. 421-456) US census officials in the 1970s changed the label for the person listed first in a household from "head" to "householder". This essay places this shift in terminology into historical perspective by examining the meanings of family concepts held by census-takers and by the American they enumerated. Even in the "tranditional" era of the family, roughly before 1800, household headship was more a consequence of other attributes than an independent source of status or power. Both then and in the modern period that followed, the implications of being a head, or one of the heads, of a household depended on the context. While a more individualistic notion of the family has developed, there is still considerable continuity in the conceptions of the family. 93.17.15 - English - Heinz FASSMANN and Rainer MÜNZ, Institute for Regional and Urban Studies, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna (Austria) Patterns and Trends of International Migration in Western Europe (p. 457-480) Of the nearly 380 million people living in Western Europe (defined as comprising the countries of the European Community and the European Free Trade Association) in 1990, fewer than 5% (or 17 million) are legally defined as foreigners. The main receiving countries of the international migration streams from which Western Europe's foreign populations originate are Germany, France, Great Britain, and Switzerland. Distinct geographical patterns of European migration can be identified, linking sending countries to specific receiving countries. These patterns can be explained by historical, linguistic, cultural, and economic factors. In addition to these factors, patterns of immigration are shaped by internal political decisions (especially policies concerning foreign labor recruitment) and demographic developments that take place outside Western Europe. 93.17.16 - English - Christopher J.L. MURRAY and Lincoln C. CHEN, International Health Economics, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (U.S.A.) Understanding Morbidity Change (p. 481-503) Attempts to assess morbidity - illness, disability, and other compromised states of well-being - have grown in importance as life expectancy increases and mortality declines to very low levels in many populations. Morbidity measures are of two fundamental types, self-perceived and clinically observed, and different morbidity indicators may capture entirely different aspects of illness and health. The authors develop an approach to morbidity definition and measurement, review specific methods, and present a framework for classifying different types of morbidity indicators. They examine various approaches to the interactions between morbidity and mortality change, illustrating these with selected data from India, the United States, and Ghana. 93.17.17 - English - Nicholas EBERSTADT, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 (U.S.A.), and Judith BANISTER, Center for International Research, US Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233 (U.S.A.) Divided Korea: Demographic and Socioeconomic Issues for Reunification (p. 505-531) North and South Korea, partitioned in 1945 and almost completely out of contact with each other since the end of the Korean War, offer the example of a single population under two radically different political and economic systems. For decades, it has been difficult to compare the results of their contrasting development strategies due to the lack of information about North Korea. New information, however, makes it possible to compare social and economic conditions in this divided nation. These comparisons also point to a number of policy issues that might arise in the event of a free and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula. 93.17.18 - English - GUI Shixun, Institute of Population Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai (China), and LIU Xian, Institute of Gerontology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbon, Michigan (U.S.A.) Urban Migration in Shanghai, 1950-88: Trends and Characteristics (p. 533-548) As a consequence of the political swings and the economic variations in contemporary China, there have been considerable changes in the pattern of urban migration since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949. Urban migration in the period 1950- 88 in Shanghai, a city that plays a special role in China's economic and social development, typifies such a changing pattern. This note describes overall trends and relevant characteristics of Shanghai's urban migration, gives evidence of the existence of four distinct stages of the city's migration history, and discusses the consequences and implications of the pronounced changes in the pattern of Shanghai's urban migration. DECEMBRE 1992 - VOLUME 18, NUMBER 4 93.17.19 - English - Maire Ni BHROLCHAIN, Lecturer in Population Studies, University of Southampton, Southampton (U.K.) Period Paramount? A Critique of the Cohort Approach to Fertility (p. 599-629) The author examines the case for the cohort approach to fertility. In view of the virtually unanimous verdict of statistical investigations that period is far more important than cohort in accounting for fertility variation through time, the demographic case for the cohort approach needs to be reconsidered. The article looks to the historical roots of conventional thinking on the subject and identifies the elements of the demographic case for the cohort approach. These are examined individually and found either not to be valid arguments or not to require a cohort perspective. Some of the problems associated with the period fertility approach arise from mistaken measurement of period phenomena and the misconceived evaluation of period parameters relative to their cohort counterparts. An alternative approach to measuring period fertility phenomena is considered. The cohort may have a role as a convenient measurement framework, but on demographic and statistical grounds the period perspective is considered superior for the description and analysis of fertility. 93.17.20 - English - John R. WILMOTH, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, California (U.S.A.), and Patrick BALL, Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbon, Michigan (U.S.A.) The Population Debate in American Popular Magazines, 1946-90 (p. 631-668) During the period from 1946 to 1990, the Reader's Guide to Periodical Literature indexed 1,683 articles about population issues that appeard in American popular magazines. These articles focused primarily on population size, density, and growth, and offered a variety of perspectives on the "population problem". In the present article, the authors document the evolution of popular arguments about the consequences of rapid population growth - where, when, and why growth was, or was not, perceived to be a problem - and examine the role of professional demographers in the popular debate. The authors show that the geographic and substantive focus of popular concern about "overpopulation" changed considerably during this period, and that demographers were more visibly involved in the public discussion of these issues before 1970 than afterward. 93.17.21 - English - Elwood CARLSON, Department of Sociology, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina 29208 (U.S.A.) Inverted Easterlin Fertility Cycles and Kornai's "Soft" Budget Constraint (p. 669-688) Richard Easterlin's baseline model of self-reinforcing fertility cycles applies to systems with open, competitive labor markets and an insignificant volume of international migration. This analysis examines what happens in circumstances where such a labor market is replaced by a centrally planned economy and state guarantees of full employment. The conclusion, foreshadowed by the theoretical writings of Janos Kornai, appears to be that fertility varies directly with parents' cohort size, a relationship just the inverse of the more familiar pattern observed in some Western societies. 93.17.22 - English - Sonalde DESAI, Research Division, The Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.) Children at Risk: The Role of Family Structure in Latin America and West Africa (p. 689-717) Models of the family proposed by the "new household economics" have had a strong influence on researchers and policymakers alike. In extending these models to developing countries, however, relatively little attention has been directed to the applicability of some of their underlying assumptions in diverse cultural settings. Two aspects of these models seem particularly problematic: the assumption of a cohesive family unit with perfect altruism within the family, and lack of consideration of flexible boundaries of the household observed in many cultures. Using data on the nutritional status of children in north-est Brazil, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic in Latin America, and in Ghana, Mali and Senegal in West Africa, this article examines the importance of these two issues in predicting the level of resources available to children. Although parents care about the welfare of their children, their level of altruism varies across different types of families and seems to depend on culturally acceptable practices. 93.17.23 - English - Sharon STANTON RUSSELL, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 (U.S.A.) International Migration and Political Turmoil in the Middle East (p. 719-727) Political turmoil, international relations, and international migration have been inextricably linked in the Middle East for centuries, and notably in recent decades. Yet, rarely has migration been seen as a matter of high politics. This changed dramatically with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, which generated large and far-reaching population dislocations and highlighted the role of international migration in international relations. Sizable concentrations of migrants in this zone of conflict made them central to strategic calculations by all countries involved. This note argues that, while demographers contributed little to knowledge and policy action during the Gulf crisis, they can enhance future understanding of the links between international migration and international relations by monitoring and more accurately predicting migration flows and ensuring that academic research is "translated" for use by the policy community. 93.17.24 - English - Dolores ACEVEDO, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, and Thomas J. ESPENSHADE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544 (U.S.A.) Implications of a North American Free Trade Agreement for Mexican Migration into the United States (p. 729-744) In the short-to-medium run, a North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is likely to increase pressures for undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. But given that NAFTA (if approved) will be phased-in over a 15-year period, the migration effect need not be sudden or overwhelming. In the long run, however, if free trade brings about an improvement in the Mexican economy relative to the US economy, the incentives for undocumented migration are likely to weaken. The authors calculate estimates of the undocumented gross annual migration flow by stipulating various degrees of changes in the relative level of unemployment and of wage rates between the United States and Mexico. These estimates show that narrowing the wide economic differentials between the two countries could substantially reduce the undocumented flow.
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