Back to home pageJordan (Amman) POPULATION BULLETIN OF ESCWA JUNE 1989 - NUMBER 34 93.27.01 - English - M. Nabil EL-KHORAZATY A Century of Demographic and Socio-economic Dynamics in Egypt (p. 3-35) This study aims at explaining the mechanisms and implicit causes behind the demographic changes which took place in Egypt in the hundred years from 1882 to 1981 through an analysis of the demographic and socio-economic changes that occurred during this period using the Box-Jenkins method for the analysis of time series. Causal models with one variable, two variables and several variables have been made so that these models take into account the interrelationship within, as well as among the variables, with the passage of time. Projections of demographic and socio-economic changes up to the year 2000 using such models have been made. New ideas of value to the demographic policy in Egypt have been highlighted by using a new batch of data and a modern approach. (EGYPT, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, POPULATION POLICY) 93.27.02 - English - Thomas K. BURCH Sex-role Homogeneity, Female Status and Demographic Change (p. 37- 44) This study attempts to investigate the nature of the relationships governing child-bearing models and family formation by measuring the status and role of women in society. Therefore, this study proposes that inductive analysis should be adopted using the difference in life-expectancy among males and females at birth as a measurement of women's status to define the distinction between the roles of the two sexes. This is carried out by analysing the interrelationships between the variables of development religion, area, fertility and women's relative status in a group of 120 countries. The study concludes that the analysis of the downward slope at the international level may explain the effect of the roles of the two sexes and women's status on demographic change on the one hand, and the effect of cultural factors such as region and religion on women's role and status on the other. The problem of interpretation persists and requires that further efforts be made to achieve a better understanding of culture beyond ready- made interpretations of problems defined in advance. (WOMEN'S STATUS, SEXUAL ROLE) 93.27.03 - English - Mohammad al-Awad JALAL AD-DIN Patterns, Trends and Future of International Migration: Some Causes and Consequences (p. 45-61) This study examines the main trends of various models of international migration for the 19th and early 20th centuries, and places emphasis on the volume and direction of various models of migration at present. Permanent migration, illegal migration in search of work and compulsory migration (refugees) are discussed in some detail with reference to the occasional difficulty of distinguishing between the various types of migration. When discussing the volume and sources of migration, the study indicates some of its motives and implications at origin and at destination and presents some of the future prospects and major factors that contribute to the continuation of the flow of the different types of migration. (INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS) 93.27.04 - English - Mohammad Shawqi MAKKI Occupational Mobility of Heads of Households Migrating to Medina (p. 63-93) The study is based on a survey conducted by the author in 1986 of a sample of household heads who migrated to Medina in Saudi Arabia. Analysis of the data shows that the majority of the migrants were able to achieve positive vocational mobility as a result of their migration. However, there are some distinctions in the extent of this positiveness between Saudi Arabian and non- Saudi Arabian migrants, as well as between urban and rural migrants. Analysis has proved that such distinctions can be attributed to demographic and socio-economic causes and has shown that the main factors affecting migration to Medina are difference in income, as well as in the educational level at origin and at destination. A change of vocation has led to a higher proportion of the population feeling satisfied with their jobs after migration, which implies that the population achieves a kind of psychological stability as a result of migration. (SAUDI ARABIA, INTERNAL MIGRATION, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, OCCUPATIONAL MOBILITY)
Back to home page