ZEITSCHRIFT FUR BEVOLKERUNGSWISSENSCHAFT

Germany (Wiesbaden)

1991 - NUMBER 4
93.43.01 - German - Heinz FASSMANN and Rainer MUNZ, Institut fur Demographie,
Austrian Academy of Sciences, Hintere Zollamtstrasse 2 b, 1033 Vienna (Austria)
Demographic and Social Consequences of East-West Migration - The Example of Austria: Conclusions for
Western Europe (Demographische und soziale Konsequenzen der ost-west-Wanderung - Beispiele aus
Osterreich, Folgerungen fur Westeuropa) (p. 379-393)
Immigration to the West from Eastern Europe, partly towards Austria, will probably become an
everyday event. The consequences of immigration for the labour market and housing have been
calculated using four scenarios of political and economical evolution in Europe. A very high net
immigration (of +50,000 per year) would lead the legal population of Austria to increase from 7.8
million to 9.5 million in 40 years, or a 21% increase from now to 2031. A net immigration of +25,000
people per year would make the legal population increase to 8.3 million inhabitants by 2031, or an
increase of 3%. Without immigration, or if immigration and emigration compensate for each other, the
number of inhabitants in Austria would decrease up to the year 2031 to a little over 7.1 million (-
8%). These calculations highlight the fact that, while immigration would be incapable of halting the
population ageing process currently underway, it could, at best, decelerate it. With 50,000
immigrants per year, the share of people aged over 60 years old would increase from 20% to 29% in
2031; without immigration, it would reach more than 33%. On the Austrian labour market, a high level
of immigration during the 1990s would make existing unemployment increase (1991: 6%), whereas in the
longer term, it would have a positive compensatory effect due to the ageing. On the housing market,
a high level of immigration would result in serious adaptation problems as there is already a
considerable shortage of housing (1991: 190,000 households were looking for accommodation). From the
economic and demographic point of view, continual immigration to the industrialised nations of
Western Europe seems probable. The scenarios calculated for Austria show that this should be
accompanied by an appropriate integration policy. (AUSTRIA, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, AGEING,
POPULATION PROJECTION)
93.43.02 - German - Anatole ROMANIUC, Demography Division, Statistics Canada,
Station A - 8, Jean Talon Building, Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6 (Canada)
Demographic Projections as a Prognostic, Simulation and Analysis of the Future
(Bevolkerungsvorausschatzunen als Voraussage, Simulation und Zukunftsanalyse) (p. 395-410)
The author begins by discussing the notion of prognostic, then how to achieve one by means of
projections. Theoretical constructions, such a logistic growth, population transition, as well as
the probabilistic formulation of demographic events are next considered. From the point of view of
action, the issue is to know to what extent the analytical capacities should be developed in order
to formulate plausible hypotheses on the future, and how it would be possible to increase the
operational efficiency of the models so as to minimise their costs. Other subjects are examined such
as the duration, frequency and suitability of multiple scenarios. The emphasis is put on projections
as an instrument for "organising" the future. (POPULATION PROJECTION, SIMULATION, DEMOGRAPHIC
ANALYSIS)
93.43.03 - English - Nico KEILMAN, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Postbus
959, 2270 AZ Voorburg (Netherlands)
Analysing Ex-post Observed Errors in a Series of Population Projections (p. 411-432)
It is possible to obtain improvements in the precision of population projections if there is a
series of projections which are compared to the trends observed at a later date. In the present
article, the author supposes that the errors in the projections are made up of three factors: the
duration, the projection period and, finally, the mean error related to the forecase which occurs in
any given year. He suggests a solution for identifying these factor, using a model and discusses the
estimation problems. Then, the model is applied to nine birth projections undertaken by the
Netherlands Central Statistical Office (BCSN) between 1950 and 1980. For the period 1967-1970, the
projection used the cohort method by marriage duration instead of the classical component method
which had been used in the previous projections. This change of method did not result in the
projection errors being any smaller. The period effects and the forecast effects in fertility errors
appear to be approximately of the same order of magnitude. The precision of fertility projections in
general does not decrease with increasing projection duration - such an effect has only been noted
for the periods where population growth was strong. (NETHERLANDS, POPULATION PROJECTION, DEMOGRAPHIC
ANALYSIS)
93.43.04 - German - Heribert ENGSTLER and Kurt LUSCHER
Late First Motherhood. A New Biographical Pattern of Family Formation? (Spate erste Mutterschaft.
Ein neues biographisches Muster der Familiengrunding?) (p. 433-460)
Having a first child at an older age (35 or over) has been very much in the public eye recently. And
yet, studies show that, over the last thirty years, there has been no significant increase in the
number of such births. The perception of this type of family building has, on the other hand,
changed somewhat. From a medical point of view, the health risks are increasingly reduced through
the improvement of diagnostics and medical and obstetrical care. From the point of view of the
social sciences, this type of motherhood is coming under discussion because of the occupational
training and activities that women have. The results of interviews with 22 mothers show that later
motherhood is partly a result of conflict between occupational and personal interests. A new type of
relationship is setting in between the two parents. A late first birth can be the result of
sterility or temporary infecundity. The example of "first birth at a late age" shows in a
particularly clear way the biographical dynamics and the fields of tension pertaining in our times
to the decision in favour of parenthood. It also shows that, in recent times, both family behaviour
and the understanding of family have changed and that they both have an influence on each other.
(MOTHER'S AGE, FERTILITY, FAMILY BUILDING)
93.43.05 - German - Bernd SCHOFER, Harald BENDER and Richard UTZ
Are Singles Individualized? Life Situation and Lifestyle of Persons Living Alone (Sind Singles
individualisiert? Lebenslae und Lebensstil Alleinlebender) (p. 461-488)
To what extent can people who live alone be considered an individual population segment and how does
this situation correspond to a specific way of life? There are more and more people who live alone
in all walks of life. It would appear that, in comparison with people living in groups, a great
number of singles are liberated from traditional solidarity structures. Their social integration
occurs within a system of individualistic values and strengthens this system by an individualization
thrust. (SINGLE PERSON)
1992 - NUMBER 1
93.43.06 - German - Katharina POHL, Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung,
P.B. 5528, 6200 Wiesbaden (Germany), Bernd STORTZBACH and Hartmut WENDT
The Demographic Situation in Germany and in the European Community (Die demographische Lage in
Deutschland und in der Europaischen Gemeinschaft) (p. 3-93)
Demographic study of Germany since unification with a distinction made between the old West and East
Germanies from the point of view of migration, age structure, marriage, births, deaths, economic
activity rates, unemployment, and a comparison with other countries in the European Community.
(GERMANY, POPULATION MOVEMENT)
93.43.07 - German - Reiner Hans DINKEL, Winzererstrasse 49, 8000 Munchen 40
(Germany)
Cohort Life Tables for the Birth Cohorts 1900 to 1962 in the Two Parts of Germany
(Kohortensterbetafeln fur die Geburtsjahrgange ab 1900 bis 1962 in den beiden Teilen Deutschlands)
(p. 95-116)
The author constructs cohort life tables for both sexes and for the generations born between 1900
and 1962, using all the available sources of data on mortality in the two German states up to 1989.
For the two States, it is surmised that mortality for all generations up to 1944 was identical and
that it differs from 1945 on, in accordance with the mortality values calculated for the separate
territories. As early as 1946, the mortality quotients were observed to be very different because of
the living condition differentials. It can be established that, during the last fifteen years, there
has been a clearly different development. While the life tables were very close previously, the
mortality quotients of the cohorts in East Germany lie far above the Western quotients. The
difference in mortality between East and West Germany is not due to a cohort effect. (GERMANY,
MORTALITY, LIFE TABLE, GENERATION LIFE TABLES)
93.43.08 - German - Josef KYTIR
Between "Pre-modern" and "Post-modern" - Formation of Families in Austria, 1984 to 1990 (Zwischen
"vormodern" und "postmodern" - amiliengrundungen in Osterreich 1984 is 1990) (p. 117-133)
Using official population statistics, the author studies Austrian family formation between 1984 and
1990. All women are classified into three categories of mother: 1) those who were not married when
their child or children were born; 2) those who married during the pregnancy; 3) those who were
married when they conceived. The percentages of mothers in these three categories are 38, 22 and 40
respectively. The socio-demographic and regional variations are significant. Austria stands out with
a relatively high percentage of first-born children born before marriage, in particular amongst
young, poorly educated mothers and in the Alpine areas. On the other hand, illegitimacy is low in
urban zones. It can be deduced from this study that illegitimacy cannot be considered to be a result
of the modernisation process. (AUSTRIA, FAMILY BUILDING, ILLEGITIMATE BIRTH)
93.43.09 - German - Rembrandt D. SCHOLZ and Jurgen SCHOTT
Structure of Causes of Death and Cause of Death-Specific Mean Age at Death and their Relationship to
the Mean Life Expectancy - A Methodological Contribution (Todesursachenstruktur und
todesursachenspezifische mittlere Sterbealter in ihrer Beziehung zur mittleren Lebenserwartung - ein
methodischer Beitrag) (p. 135-142)
Cause of death-specific life tables are constructed in relation to the life expectancy. The average
life expectancy is the weighted arithmetical mean of cause-specific age at death. The authors
separate the structural development of causes of death and the development of ages at death on life
expectancy at birth. They undertake a critical analyis of the standardisation methods in this kind
of exercise. During this century, the increase in life expectancy in Germany would have been 24.6
years, of which two-thirds would be due to the change in the age structure and one-third to the
change in the structure of causes of death. (GERMANY, MORTALITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, CAUSE OF DEATH)
1992 - NUMBER 2
93.43.10 - German - Jurgen DORBRITZ
Nuptiality, Fertility and Family Ways of Life in Social Transformation - Transition to a New
Demographic Regime in East Germany? (Nuptialitat, Fertilitat und familiale Lebensformen in der
sozialen Transformation - Ubergang zu einer neuen Bevolkerungsweise in Ostdeutschland?) (p. 167-196)
When an economic and social order has persisted for more than four decades, there are obviously
going to be traces left of it in the demographic process. This is particularly true for the old East
Germany where there are strong relationships between nuptiality and fertility, such as the forms of
fertility and first marriage, a marriage-divorce-remarriage spiral and a lack of association between
first birth and marriage. It is true that these characteristics are not specific to a socialist
regime, but rather result simultaneously from ancient traditions, the devaluation of marriage and
the desire to benefit from the social advantages of motherhood. These characteristics can be noted
throughout the 1980s and then began to accelerate. With the disappearance of the pro-natalist policy
of East Germany, new styles of population behaviour began to appear. (GERMANY, POPULATION POLICY,
NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY, FAMILY BUILDING)
93.43.11 - German - Karl SCHWARZ, Klopstockstrasse 14, 6200 Wiesbaden (Germany)
Demographic Effects of Measures of Family Policy - Presented by the Example of Parental Allowances
with Parental Leave for the Education of Children and the Crediting of Such Times for Pension
Schemes (Bevolkerungspolitische Wirkungen familienpolitischer Massnahmen - Dargestellt am Beispiel
des Erziehungsgeldes mit Erziehungsurlaub und Anrechnung von Erziehungszeiten in der
Altersversorgung) (p. 197-208)
An important new instrument of family policy was created in Germany in 1986 with parental
allowances, parental leave for the upbringing of children and the crediting for the old-age pension
scheme of such periods of leave. The author feels that the advantages to be gained are not great
enough to incite couples to have more children, as they only partially compensate for the costs of
bringing up children in the early months following their birth. The increase in the number of births
registered since 1985 is the result of changes in the population structure and in the higher
natality of immigrants. The author suggests it would be time to think about the measures taken and
their consequences, in particular for single-parent families. (GERMANY, POPULATION POLICY, SINGLE
PARENT FAMILY)
93.43.12 - German - Arthur E. IMHOF, Freie Universitat Berlin, Fachbereich
Geschichtswissenschaften, Habelschwerdter Allee 45, 1000 Berlin (Germany)
European Historical Demography - Of Global Relevance (Europaische Historische Demographie - von
weltweiter Relevanz) (p. 209-228)
The author demonstrates the scientific advantages which can be gained from historical demography
each time that parish registers were kept in a continuous manner. Analysing these data often permits
an interpretation of population trends over the last three centuries, as well as of the social
situations and mentalities, particularly useful for seeking certain solutions to current problems in
the rich tapestry of Western culture. One good example would be the ars moriendi - i.e., the art of
dying (well), widely known in the 15th century which, today, in a totally different situation, can
be transformed into an Ars vivendi, or the art of making of our lives an accomplished existence,
following a "life plan" which takes into account not only specific chances and possibilities, but
also the difficulties of all the phases of our lives from adult ages onwards. (EUROPE, HISTORICAL
DEMOGRAPHY)
93.43.13 - German - Steffen BOCK
Methodological Problems of Analysing Cause-Specific Mortality Rates - The Case of Panama City
(Methodische Probleme bei der Analyse von todesursachenspezifischen Sterbeziffern - dargestellt am
Beispiel von Panama-Stadt) (p. 229-246)
It is often difficult to analyse trends in causes of death due to the limited size of the population
and the restricted quantity of observations, as Quinney demonstrated in 1964. The author uses the
Monte Carlo simulation model in the case of Panama City where the number of observations is limited
and thereby shows that the quality of the health system data available in all the city's sectors
permits the conclusion that residential variations have little impact on cause-specific mortality or
infant mortality. (PANAMA, MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, SIMULATION)

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