Back to home pageFrance (Paris) POPULATION MARCH-APRIL 1992 - 47TH YEAR, NUMBER 2 93.46.01 - French - Philippe FARGUES, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Demography and Politics in the Arab World (Démographie et politique dans le monde arabe) (p. 305- 326) In this article, historical or present aspects of Arab populations are used to answer some questions on a topic that has been little studied: political demography. How does the perception of population issues enter into power strategies and does it influence the policies of individual groups or states? How do political institutions affect reproductive behaviour? First, population size is discussed: in the relationships between nation states, or between religious or ethnic communities, power is always affected by numbers. The dynamics involved are studied, especially through the imbalance that differential growth introduces in the division of population and power among communities. Lastly, age groups are studied as one factor affecting Islamism. The political scientists see the new activism through its speeches; the demographer treats it as a generation phenomenon. In fact, this political trend appears precisely when the proportion aged 20 to 30 is the highest in the population aged 20 and above, when the decline in mortality has resulted in a longer period of a co-existence with their fathers and when the dissociation between knowledge and power has reached its peak. (ARAB COUNTRIES, POPULATION POLICY, ISLAM) 93.46.02 - French - Ali KOUAOUCI, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore (U.S.A.) Trends and Factors Involved in Algerian Birth Rates Between 1970 and 1986 (Tendances et facteurs de la natalité algérienne entre 1970 et 1986) (p. 327-352) The natural growth rate of the Algerian population has exceeded 3% per year for over 20 years, between 1966 and 1987, resulting in practically doubling the population from 12 to 23 million. During this period, birth rates began to decline, though at a slower rate than death rates. It was only in 1985-86 that growth rates showed signs of slowing down. Based on data from 1970 (ESNP) and (ENAF), this article attempts to emphasize the impact of various factors on birth rates (structure, proportions of marriages and legitimate births) and intermediate fertility variables (breastfeeding, contraception, abortion and sterility) on the differences in the levels and trends observed both in space (rural/urban) and time (1970/1986). (ALGERIA, NATALITY, FERTILITY) 93.46.03 - French - France PRIOUX, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) The Ups and Downs of Marriage in Austria (Les accident de la nuptialité autrichienne) (p. 353-388) During the last 20 years, there have been three peak periods in Austrian marriage rates, resulting from changes in taxation on marriage of single persons (1972 and 1987), or merely from rumours about such changes (1983). In the first part of this article, it is shown that the larger number of marriages in 1983 and 1987 in fact limited the rise in the number of illegitimate births, which had begun at the end ofthe 70s, and that at least one "surplus"couple out of three married in 1987 neither had a child nor were expecting one and had probably no intention of getting married in the immediate future. In analyzing marriage rates for generations of women, it seems that these three peaks contributed to stabilizing the proportion never married in the 1953 to 1957 cohorts, and slowed its rise in the cohorts of 1958 and 1959. Having shown how to solve a methodological problem, relating to the calculation of legitimate birth rates by duration of marriages, it is demonstrated that marital fertility rates in these three special cohorts were lower than in others, and that this is only partially compensated by larger numbers of legitimated children. Paradoxically, until now, divorce has not been more frequent than in othercohorts. Finally, a slight increase in birth rates was observed in 1988 which can only be attributed indirectly to the surplus of marriages in 1987. (AUSTRIA, NUPTIALITY, FERTILITY) 93.46.04 - French - Didier BLANCHET, INSEE, bd Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Interpreting Trends in Labour Force Participation and in Fertility (Interpréter les évolutions temporelles de l'activité féminine et de la fécondité) (p. 389-408) The growth of women's labour force participation at given family size is often quoted as suggesting some independence between fertility trends and activity trends. This paper shows that such an inference is incorrect because, in any case, there cannot be any change in aggregate activity and aggregate fertility without any change of at least one or both variables after controlling for the other. This observation being made, we consider French data between 1968 and 1982 which suggest that, conversely, fertility has little changed when activity is controlled for. We try to interpret this with a small model of behaviour of which the parameters are: the average value attributed to work, the value attributed to large families and an index of incompatibility between activity and childbearing. It is concluded that it is the variations of the first of these parameters which provide the best explanation for the joint trend in activity and fertility. (FERTILITY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT) 93.46.05 - French - Michel BOZON, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Sociology of the Marriage Ritual (Sociologie du rituel du mariage) (p. 409-434) At present, only between 250,000 and 300,000 marriage ceremonies are held in France each year. As marriages increasingly occur after a period of cohabitation, this has led to modification in the ritual: engagement has lost its importance and the spouses' families are less concerned in the organization of the festivities. However, the sharp decline in religious practice is not matched by a decline in religious marriage ceremonies which continue to reflect the permanence of links to a local community or an extended family, especially in rural areas. Three major types of marriage are found today. In the "traditional" wedding, there is no previous cohabitation; betrothal and religious ceremonies remain and marriages tend to be uxorilocal and the festivities are organized by the spouses' parents. In the "deritualized" wedding, the ceremony is simplified and concerns mainly the spouses who are already living together. In the "classic" wedding, the intermediate between the other two, the spouses have lived together before marriage, but voluntarily adhere to the socially recognized aspects of marriage: the religious ceremony remains and the festive aspect of the wedding ceremony is stressed. (FRANCE, MARRIAGE, COHABITATION) 93.46.06 - French - Alain DROUARD, CNRS, URA 100, Paris (France) The Sources of Eugenics in France: Neo-Malthusianism (1896-1914) (Aux origines de l'eugénisme en France: le néo-malthusianisme (1896-1914) (p. 435-460) Eugenics developed in France much later than in England, towards the end of the 19th century. Its roots are anchored in neo-Malthusianism to the point where the two movements were nearly identical. This similarity shows up in some objectives shared by both movements: population quality rather than quantity; a conscious rational selection must be substituted for the natural selection by mortality which is no longer sufficient; limiting the number of births will solve social problems by improving working conditions and providing couples with the means for a better sexual relationship. These similarities are even more pronounced since members of both movements share the same ideas and often belong to both the League of Human Regeneration founded in 1896 and the French Eugenics Society founded in 1913. (FRANCE, EUGENICS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY) MAY-JUNE 1992 - 47TH YEAR, NUMBER 3 93.46.07 - French - Jacques VALLIN, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Causes of Adult Mortality in Countries with Low Mortality Rates: A Comparison between Several Industrialized and Developing Countries (Causes de mortalité adulte dans les pays à faible mortalité: comparaison entre quelques pays industriels et quelques pays en développement) (p. 555- 582) In a certain number of developing countries, life expectancy levels now approach those of the developed world. But, though life expectancies at birth may be similar, the infant mortality rate in developing countries remains higher, but is compensated by a lower rate of mortality for adults. It is to be expected that, as infant mortality rates continue to decline, the developing countries will maintain their advantageous adult mortality rates and that life expectancy will forge ahead of the level achieved in developed countries. Alternatively, are they likely to lose their advantage and pay a price for their continuing social and economic organization? To answer this question, recent trends in adult cause-specific mortality rates in four developing countries (Chile, Hong Kong, Mexico and Costa Rica) were compared with those in three industrialized countries (France, Germany and Japan). The results were inconclusive. Whilst life expectancies in some of these countries may be expected to forge ahead (Chile, Hong Kong), in others, the margin between their life expectancies and those of developed countries has already narrowed. (DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, MORTALITY, LIFE EXPECTANCY, DEVELOPING COUNTRY) 93.46.08 - French - Anouch CHAHNAZARIAN, ORSTOM, B.P. 1386, Dakar (Senegal) Recent Rise in Birth Rates in Haiti: New Trends in Favour of Cohabitation? (Hausse récente de la fécondité en Haïti: un nouvel engagement pour la vie en union?) (p. 583-616) Three retrospective demographic surveys were carried out in Haiti in 1977, 1983 and 1987. They show a rise in birth rates, not only in terms of period rates for dates preceding these surveys, but also in terms of average parities (total number of children already born by age of women surveyed). The validity of the result has been evaluated by comparing the data in the survey with data from other sources (other surveys and censuses), by studying the internal logic of each survey (comparison of synthesized period fertility rates at given times and parity distributions) and by comparing the results of the three surveys (calculation of period indices by differenciating parities reached in two surveys or reconstituting parities at the same date from two surveys). The most important reason for uncertainty seems to be linked to emigration to the United States of the least fertile women. The principal reasons for the rising birth rates are the reduction in the age of first entering a sexual union and the increasing importance of cohabitation. This phenomenon affects less educated women more often, no doubt because it is they who need the financial security provided by living as a couple at this particularly difficult time for the Haitian economy. (HAITI, FERTILITY, COHABITATION, SURVEYS) 93.46.09 - French - Jitka RYCHTARIKOVA and Dagmar DZUROVA, Charles University, Faculty of Science, Praha (Czechoslovakia) Geographical Differentials in Czechoslovak Mortality Rates (Les disparités géographiques de la mortalité en Tchécoslovaquie) (p. 617-644) In the Czech Republic, the lowest mortality rates are found in Southern Moravia, the northern part of Southern Bohemia and the border between Eastern Bohemia and Moravia. In the Slovak Republic, low mortality rates are found in two regions: an industrial region of Western Slovakia, and a poorly developed, rural region in the northern part of Eastern Slovakia. Differentials are largest in infant mortality and in mortality rates after the age of 60. In the Czech Republic, infant mortality rates are rather low and rates over the age of 60 high: the opposite is true of Slovakia. Deaths from circulatory diseases and tumours are more frequent in the Czech Republic than in Slovakia, where there is a relative excess mortality from diseases of the respiratory system and the digestive tract. The influence of social conditions on mortality is clearly apparent, particularly in the significant Gipsy minority, or in cases where divorce rates are high. The part played by ecological variables is less clear. (CZECHOSLOVAKIA, CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, MORTALITY) 93.46.10 - French - Jean-Pierre TERRAIL, LASTES, Université de Nancy II, Nancy (France) School Attendance Among Boys and Girls: Background and Discussion (Destins scolaires de sexe: une perspective historique et quelques arguments) (p. 645-676) In this paper, the author examines a number of issues from the debate launched during the end of the 1980s that relate to the relative over-representation of girls in schools. He begins by setting the phenomenon in its social context, describes scholastic success in terms of sex and explores the area of class structures from the inter-war period. His findings lead him to a discussion of the relevance of explanations in terms of cultural gender relations and suggest an approach which refers to the mobilization of his protagonists, rather than to a structural interpretation of social change. (FRANCE, EDUCATION, SCHOOLING, WOMEN'S STATUS) 93.46.11 - French - Françoise CRIBIER and Alexandre KYCH, CNRS, Equipe de géographie sociale et gérontologie, Université de Paris VII, Paris (France) The Migration of Retired Parisians. An Analysis of a Propensity Towards Departure (La migration de retraite des Parisiens. Une analyse de la propension au départ) (p. 677-718) More than 25% of every cohort leaves Greater Paris immediately after retirement to live in the provinces: the departure rate is twice than in large provincial towns. Those who most frequently leave are the youngest couples, childless retired persons and those who have a child living in the provinces. However, unlike the situation in the United States or Britain, departure rates do not decrease as one descends the social scale: they are relatively homogeneous for the entire urban society, with the highest rate in the middle third. Those born and educated in the provinces leave more often than those born in Paris, particularly Parisians born abroad; but only about half return to their areas of origin. Surveys show that attitudes towards Paris and the provinces play an important part in the decision to leave. Higher living standards, larger horizons and the ability to develop multiple loyalties to different places permit a greater range of choices today than in the past. Housing conditions, which had been a push factor, are much less important today, except in the noisiest and most unpleasant neighbourhoods and in the least comfortable dwellings. Surveys among members of two cohorts retired in 1972 and 1984 showed alternatives to migration (changes in place of residence within Greater Paris, or dual residence) and the motives for leaving or staying. (FRANCE, INTERNAL MIGRATION, AGEING, RETIREMENT) 93.46.12 - French - Pierre DARLU, INSERM U 155, CNRS, Laboratoire d'Anthropologie biologie, Université Paris VII, 2 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris (France), and Jacques RUFFIE, Collège de France, Laboratoire d'Anthropologie physique, 11 place Marcelin Berthelot, 75005 Paris (France) Immigration into French Departments Studied by Surnames (L'immigration dans les départements français étudiée par la méthode des patronymes) (p. 719-734) The distribution of surnames in a population may be studied in the same way as the distribution of the number of alleles in a locus. The mutation probabilities per unit of time in the genetic model may be likened to the immigration probabilities in the population studied. This method has been applied to births in the rural communes of France during the years 1891-1915 and 1916-1940. Estimates were correlated with immigration statistics from the censuses of 1891 and 1921, obtained from a comparison between birth place and place of residence. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient turned out to be 0.676. (FRANCE, INTERNAL MIGRATION, GENETICS, POPULATION GENETICS) JULY-AUGUST 1992 - 47TH YEAR, NUMBER 4 93.46.13 - French - Jean-Paul SARDON, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Women's First Marriage Rates in Europe: Elements for a Typology (La primo-nuptialité féminine en Europe: éléments pour une typologie) (p. 855-893) Marriage patterns in Eastern and Western Europe during recent years have been very different: marriage is common and is contracted at relatively young ages in the east; it is less frequent and occurs later in the west. This gap between Eastern and Western Europe only dates back to the late 1970s. This does not mean that Hajnal's axis from St. Petersburg to Trieste has been re- established. The similarity of the two patterns during the 1960s, which involved women born before 1945, was almost entirely due to increasingly early marriages in the west. The present gap is caused by the fact that newly emerging alternative matrimonial models have not yet reached Eastern Europe. The present gap could, therefore, prove to be only a temporary episode, until the new forms of union which have not yet become established in Eastern Europe for economic reasons develop there as well. A study of the relationship between the sum of first marriage rates and the median age at marriage and its changes over time, both by cohort and by period, reveals simple patterns that can be used to identify common types of development in different countries. (EUROPE, NUPTIALITY, AGE AT MARRIAGE) 93.46.14 - French - Georges MENAHEM Health Problems in Adult Life and Family Traumas during Childhood (Troubles de santé à l'âge adulte et difficultés familiales durant l'enfance) (p. 893-932) The frequency with which health problems are reported by adults increases with age and with social and occupational handicaps. However, it is less well known that it also increases when they have experienced "family-related traumas" before their eighteenth birthday. This conclusion is reached from an analysis of data in an INSEE survey of 4,650 adults. Such traumas lead to an increase of between 16 and 48 per cent in the average number of reported common illnesses and to a general feeling of sickness. In the case of 23 of the 28 illnesses listed in the questionnaire, a statistically significant correlation was found between repeated illness and family traumas experienced before the eighteenth birthday. Women seem to be more sensitive to such experiences than men. Several tests can be used to discuss and assess the results. For example, if all those suffering from depression, or who complain about noise, or those who failed to answer several questions on the questionnaire are excluded from the analysis, some of the correlations between morbidity and childhood problems become much weaker. This is more often the case among women than among men. (FRANCE, CHILDHOOD, HEALTH, MORBIDITY) 93.46.15 - French - Myriam KHLAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Applying Epidemiological Methods to the Analysis of Differential Mortality: Studies of Migrants as an Example (Application des méthodes de l'épidémiologie à l'analyse de la mortalité différentielle: l'exemple des études de migrants) (p. 933-958) This paper concerns methods used by epidemiologists and demographers to compare sub-populations. Three groups of methods are examined: (1) methods based on standardization (direct and indirect); (2) Mantel-Haenszel methods; and (3) log-linear modelling. For each group, methods based on mortality rates are distinguished from those based on proportional mortality data. The use of log- linear modelling in studies of cancer risk in migrants is discussed, to illustrate an application of the case control approach and, more generally, to illustrate standard applications of log-linear modelling in the analysis of mortality based on civil registration statistics. (EPIDEMIOLOGY, MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MODEL) 93.46.16 - French - Anne PAUTI, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Family Policy in Sweden (La politique familiale en Suède) (p. 959-986) Family policy in Sweden developed along three main lines. It was adopted during the mid-thirties in response to declining fertility and for demographic measures. The measures appeared to be efficient since, after World War II, fertility was well above the level needed for replacement. With the adoption of universal family allowances in 1948, family policy was used in an attempt to equalize disparities in families' living standards caused by differences in family size. The final phase of the policy, which had now become part of social policy, goes back to the 1960s and was implemented in response to a most significant social change: women's work (which is strongly encouraged) and changes which occurred within the family. In 1990, Sweden could claim to have implemented one of the most advanced family policies in the west? It can also take pride in having achieved a fertility level which allows generations to replace themselves. (SWEDEN, POPULATION POLICY, FERTILITY, WOMEN'S STATUS) 93.46.17 - French - Linda HANTRAIS, Loughborough University (U.K.) The Impact of Family Policy on Childbearing in France and the United Kingdom (La fécondité en France et au Royaume-Uni: les effets possibles de la politique familiale) (p. 987-1016) France and the United Kingdom are both countries with birth rates which are amongst the highest in Europe, despite differences in marriage and divorce rates, cohabitation and women's economic activity. The similarity in birth rates can be examined in relation to social policy and, more especially, to government intervention in family life. Whereas French governments have, for a long time, pursued a highly visible and active family policy, successive governments in the United Kingdom have tended to leave individual couples and employers to take the initiative, except for those who are unable to meet their own needs. In European terms, the fertility rate in France appears to have been maintained at a fairly high level due, in part, to measures introduced by the government to compensate for the cost of raising a family and to help couples combine family life with employment. In the United Kingdom, on the other hand, couples have achieved a comparable family size by resorting to individual strategies, often at the expense of continuous and stable working patterns for women. (FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, FERTILITY, POPULATION POLICY, SOCIAL POLICY) SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 1992 - 47TH YEAR, NUMBER 5 93.46.18 - French - Gérard CALOT, CNAVTS, 49 rue Mirabeau, 75016 Paris (France) Relationships between Cohort and Period Demographic Indicators (Relations entre indicateurs démographiques longitudinaux et transversaux) (p. 1189-1240) Demographers commonly distinguish between period indices which refer to observations at a point in time and cohort indices which refer to generations. In this study, we are concerned with establishing relationships that make it possible to switch from one type of index to the other. We first look at renewable events of which the frequency is measured by rates and then at non-renewable events of which the frequency is measured by probabilities. The hypothesis on which our method is based is that the variation in frequencies over time can be approximated by polynomials over time intervals with a duration equal to that of an individual's exposure to risk. The quality of the relationships which are thus established between period and cohort values is evaluated by looking at fertility in France during the past hundred years: the results are considered satisfactory when based on the assumption that the approximating polynomial is a cubic. These relationships highlight the determining role played by variations of timing in the phenomenon studied, namely, the average age at childbirth and its first derivative with respect to time and the second derivative of the variance. (FRANCE, FERTILITY, MODEL, PERIOD ANALYSIS, LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS) 93.46.19 - French - Christophe VANDESCHRICK The Lexis Diagram Revisited (Le diagramme de Lexis revisité) (p. 1241-1262) During the 19th century, demographers were striving to represent demographic phenomena graphically. Around 1874-1875, Lexis proposed a solution to the problem which was to become widely known as the "Lexis diagram". Commonly used by demographers ever since, it was only improved during the 1950s by R. Pressat who developed a more "practical" version. Although demographers are currently using Pressat's version (with occasional minor modifications), it continues to be known as the "Lexis diagram". However, the question of who is to be given credit for the introduction of the diagram still requires an answer, because Verweij suggested a very similar diagram at almost the same time as Lexis! Moreover, even before Lexis and Verweij, Becker had constructed a slightly different diagram which was equally efficient! Should we therefore talk about a Becker, a Lexis, a Verweij or a Pressat diagram? (DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, LEXIS DIAGRAM) 93.46.20 - French - Véronique HERTRICH, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Relying on Existing Sources to Date Specific Events. A Survey in Mali's Bwa Country (Apport des sources existantes à la datation des événements. Une enquête en pays bwa au Mali) (p. 1241-1262) Existing sources, such as civil registers, Christian missions or maternity hospitals, are examined as part of a survey carried out in a rural area of Mali. This paper discusses their contribution to the dating of biographical events. Available documents made it possible to improve data collection by setting up dating references related to the family, such as lineage calendars, that make it possible for respondents to locate events in their own lives in time and to pinpoint dating landmarks in biographical accounts. They also provided the exact date of a significant number of births. The accuracy of the assessment which is difficult to measure must be of the order of more or less one year for events which occurred in the village during the past 40 years. This method is less valid for dating events outside the spatio-temporal field covered by the sources which we analysed. Given the low cost of the operation and its potential contribution to the dating process, this approach might be used in other small-scale detailed surveys, whenever institutional sources are accessible and conditions exist for the identification of invididuals whose names figure on given documents. (MALI, DATA COLLECTION) NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 1992 - 47TH YEAR, NUMBER 6 Homage to Alfred SAUVY JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1993 - 48TH YEAR, NUMBER 1 93.46.21 - French - Jean-Louis RALLU and Laurent TOULEMON, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Period Fertility Indices. I. The Construction of Different Indices (Les mesures de fécondité transversale. I. Construction des différents indices) (p. 7-26) The period index of total fertility is usually expressed in terms of children per woman. Calculated as the sum of age-specific fertility rates during a given year, it measures the number of children born to a woman in a fictitious cohort, on the assumption that she would, throughout her lifetime, experience the age-specific fertility rates of that year. This index implies a general fertility model in which the population can be divided into different groups, whose fertility does not depend on behaviour in the past. A number of different indices can be constructed. The most common index divides women only into different age groups, but other variables such as the number of previous children, or the age of the last-born child, etc., could be included. A priori, one would expect the quality of the index to increase as the number of variables is increased. However, no individual indicator is completely satisfactory and those which involve a large number of variables are also the most difficult to construct as they require detailed information about the structure of the population and about births. A comparison of different indices can be used for a better understanding of general fertility and its components. Such a comparison will form the subject of the authors' next paper which will describe the course of fertility in France since 1946. (DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, FERTILITY, PERIOD ANALYSIS) 93.46.22 - French - Francisco MUNOZ-PEREZ and Michèle TRIBALAT, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France) Career Perspectives and Trends in the Magistracy, 1990-2030 (Perspectives de carrière et évolution du corps des magistrats, 1990-2030) (p. 27-62) In this article, two simulation models are presented to show trends in the career prospects of the judiciary over the next forty years. In the first model, recruitment and promotion only occur when there are vacancies, which implies a constant number of judges during this period, as well as a constant distribution by rank in the judicial hierarchy. The judiciary would become very much older, particularly in the two top grades, and career prospects would vary greatly depending on the period of recruitment. In the second model, it is assumed that there would be regular recruitment to new posts and a satisfactory career structure. The number of new recruits would be on a par with numbers recruited during the 1980s. After a gradual increase in the number of judges (amounting to 50% over twenty years), the structure by grade would become stable, in accordance with the assumptions on which the model is based. Ageing would only be moderate, but there would be a cost, particularly in additional posts in the higher ranks. (DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS, PROJECTIONS, FORECASTS) 93.46.23 - French - Marie CHOQUET, Hede MENKE, Sylvie LEDOUX and Robert MENFREDI, INSERM U 169, Equipe Santé de l'Adolescent, Paris (France) Behavioural Problems among 13 to 16-Year-Olds and Housing Zones. An Epidemiological Approach (Les troubles du comportement parmi les 13-16 ans selon la zone d'habitation. Approche épidémiologique) (p. 63-82) Direct relationships between urbanization and behavioural problems have rarely been discussed in the past, even though the existence of such relationships has, by implication, been accepted by researchers into juvenile delinquency. We have compared two samples of young teenagers (aged between 13 and 16 years old), taken in areas with different types of housing (urban and semi-rural) to detect differences in the incidence of various behavioural problems (drug-taking, violence, criminal acts) in different housing zones. We also assess the importance of the "housing zone" factor in terms of other socio-demographic factors. We find that some social variables (sex, educational background, parents' marital status, housing zone) did have a significant impact, whereas others (nationality, mother's labour force status, father's social status) were less important. (EPIDEMIOLOGY, URBANIZATION, ADOLESCENCE) 93.46.24 - French - Catherine BONVALET, Hervé LE BRAS, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14 (France), Dominique MAISON, Université de Paris X, Nanterre (France), and Lionel CHARLES Friends and Relatives (Proches et parents) (p. 83-110) A count of relatives indicates the size of the extended family group. However, the number considered to be close relatives appears to be very small, as is the circle of close friends. The small number does not prevent the family, particularly the nuclear family, from giving efficient support in times of need. However, such support must not blind us to the other aspects of family life, which can lead to problems, troubles, conflicts and feuds. (FAMILY, KINSHIP, FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS) 93.46.25 - French - Helmut KNOLLE, Office fédéral de la Santé publique, Berne (Switzerland) The Number of Previous Partners in the Transmission of AIDS Through Sexual Intercourse (Le nombre passé de partenaires dans les modèles de transmission du SIDA par voie sexuelle) (p. 111-124) Explicit hypotheses relating to the choice of sexual partners are necessary to construct models of the transmission of AIDS which take account of differences between the sexual behaviour of different groups. In this paper, the population is stratified according to the number of previous sexual partners, and different types of choice are studied. By using different hypotheses relating to the risk of infection, it is possible to construct an infection transmission matrix, which can be used to define a threshold which would have to be achieved before an epidemic could develop. Homogamy reduces the probability of an AIDS epidemic in the population as a whole. (AIDS, EPIDEMICS, MORBIDITY)
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