MAANDSTATISTIEK VAN DE BEVOLKING

Netherlands (Voorburg)

SEPTEMBER 1992 - VOLUME 40, NUMBER 9
93.67.01 - Dutch - C.J.M. PRINS and H. NICOLAAS
120,000 Immigrants in 1991 (120 duizend immigranten in 1991) (p. 12-19)
Whereas the number of immigrants in the Netherlands reached 120,000 in 1991, or 3,000 more than in
1990, but less than in 1975, the number of emigrants remained stationary at 57,000. However, all the
people who emigrate are not accounted for and it is estimated that the Dutch population increased by
50,000 inhabitants in 1991 due to the migratory balance. This represents 40% of total growth. In the
absence of external population movements, and taking into account actual fertility and mortality
trends since 1960, the Dutch population in 1991 would have been 727,000 people less than the
observed figure. Up to the year 2000, foreign migration should result in a net surplus of 419,000
inhabitants, including children born to immigrants. More than 30% of immigrants have Dutch
nationality, being Dutch residents previously of the Dutch Antilles. Most foreign immigrants
originally come from Morocco and Tunisia and were allowed to rejoin their families - in 50% of the
cases for the former and 40% for the latter. The number of people seeking political asylum greatly
increased during the 1980s. The article presents several tables on the origins, sex- and age-
specific distribution and the family situation of immigrants. (NETHERLANDS, TURKEY, MOROCCO,
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, REFUGEES)
93.67.02 - Dutch - R. ZAKEE
International Demographic Developments in 1991 and 1992 (Internationale demografische ontwikkelingen
in 1991 en 1992) (p. 21-24)
Various details on population trends in 1991 and 1992 in Western Europe and in certain other
countries with regard to fertility, mortality and migration. (WORLD, POPULATION SITUATION)
OCTOBER 1992 - VOLUME 40, NUMBER 10
93.67.03 - Dutch - A.H. de JONG
Sex-specific Differential Mortality. Household Projections (Vrouwen zijn gemiddeld vijf jaar langer
alleenstaand dan mannen. Uitkomsten van een overlevingstafelbenadering van de huishoudensprognose)
(p. 12-20)
The author provides household projections for the Netherlands for the period 1992-2009 and indicates
the composition of their members by age, sex and marital status. The calculations are based on the
hypothesis that male life expectancy would increase from 73.5 to 74.8 years and that of females from
80.1 to 81.4 years. The duration of life spent alone in 1992 is 10.6 years for males and 15.4 years
for females. In the space of twenty years, these figures would increase by 1.5 years. At the end of
the projection period, the duration of cohabitation would be between five and six years. The author
also estimates the time spent in various statutes of married life. (NETHERLANDS, LIFE EXPECTANCY,
PROJECTIONS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, HOUSEHOLD)
93.67.04 - Dutch - J. de BEER and P. MEYER
Effect of Uncertainty About Future Fertility, Mortality and Migration on the Development of the
Population (Effect van onwekerheid over toekomstige geboorte, sterfte en migratie op
bevolkingsontwikkeling) (p. 21-27)
In the National Population Forecasts published annually by the Netherlands Central Bureau of
Statistics, three variants are distinguished according to hypotheses on fertility, mortality and
migration. The degree of uncertainty of these hypotheses is variable. Migration is subject to
significant fluctuations, unlike fertility, at least in the short or medium term, or mortality where
there is very little variation. The effects of changes in these three variables on the age structure
differ also. In order to account for differences in these three variables, new variants have been
incorporated into the projections and the authors have also increased the confidence intervals for
each of the three main variants. These calculations show that, in the long run (year 2050), it is
the effects of uncertainty on fertility more than on migration which will change the size of the
Dutch population. (NETHERLANDS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
NOVEMBER 1992 - VOLUME 40, NUMBER 11
93.67.05 - Dutch - H.R. HEIDA
The PRIMOS Household Model (Het PRIMOS-huishoudenmodel) (p. 16-25)
The PRIMOS household projection model is a macro-simulation model for forecasting household
evolution in the Netherlands. The main categories of households distinguished are: single persons,
married or cohabiting couples and childless couples, taking into account for the latter two
categories the size and composition. The simulation is modelled by matrices. The author indicates
the hypotheses on rates of passage from one status to another and the source of statistical
information. The results show that the number of households will increase from 5.95 million in 1990
to 7.37 million in 2015. The percentage of growth (24%) is almost twice that of the population.
Other regional projections are made using the same model as the national forecast. (NETHERLANDS,
POPULATION PROJECTIONS, HOUSEHOLD)
93.67.06 - Dutch - J.de BEER and A. H. SPRANGERS
Demographic Differences Between Non-native Groups: The Impact of International Migration
(Demografische vershillen tussen allochtone groepen: het effect van de buitenlandse migratie) (p.
26-34)
According to the Enumeration from Municipal Population Registers as of January 1st, 1990, 15% of the
Dutch population are non-native, or rather can be directly or indirectly connected with
international migration. The authors review the various waves of migration since the last war by
origin of the migrants, length of stay in the Netherlands, type of migration (by sex and age,
migrant workers, family reunification, timing of migration, etc.), and first or second generation
migrants. (NETHERLANDS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, MIGRANTS)
DECEMBER 1992 - VOLUME 40, NUMBER 12
93.67.07 - Dutch - J. de BEER
Population Forecasts 1992 (Bevolkingsprognose 1992) (p. 18-27)
The Netherlands Population Forecasts are updated annually. The 1992 revisions of the 1991 estimates
differ only slightly. The most significant revision for the long term concerns life expectancy at
birth for men which, in 2010, would be 76 years instead of 75. Furthermore, the probability of first
marriage for women born during the 1980s would increase from 75% to 80%. The population would be
slightly larger due to the revised life expectancy, reaching 17.3 million in 2030. Applying the
Monte Carlo simulation method demonstrates that the population at that date would lie somewhere
between 16.4 and 18.2 million. (NETHERLANDS, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, SIMULATION)
93.67.08 - Dutch - H. NICOLAAS and R.NOORDAM
Decline in Removals Within the Netherlands Continues in 1991 (Daling verhuizingen binnen Nederland
zet zich ook in 1991 voort) (p.28-33)
The number of people moving house within the Netherlands dropped from 1.553 million in 1990 to 1.520
million in 1991. However, the latter figure is 6% higher than the lowest rate of 1980. The authors
provide information on individual provinces. (NETHERLANDS, INTERNAL MIGRATION, CHANGES OF RESIDENCE)
JANUARY 1993 - VOLUME 41, NUMBER 1
93.67.09 - Dutch - R.F.J. TAS
Non-Dutch Nationals in the Netherlands on January 1st, 1992 (Niet-Nederlanders op 1 januari 1992)
As of January 1st, 1992, there were 733,000 foreigners living in the Netherlands, or 4.8% of the
total population. By nationality, this figure can be broken down into: 215,000 Turks, 176,000 from
the 11 European Community countries and 164,000 Moroccans, representing more than 75% of the total
number of foreigners. In 1991, the number of foreigners increased by 40,000, or 5.8% of the total.
The author gives some information on the growth rates by nationality, age group, nationality of
foreigners' parents and family type (nuclear, people living alone). (NETHERLANDS, INTERNATIONAL
MIGRATION, FOREIGNERS)
93.67.10 - Dutch - W. D. van HOOM
Determinants of Mortality (Detrminanten van sterfte) (p.29-41)
Mortality determinants in the Netherlands do not differ greatly from those in other developed
countries. Overall, the risk of mortality is lower for women than for men, in particular for heart
disease and lung cancer. For the time being, it is too early to say if the diminishing gap between
the sexes is due to the change in women's lifestyles which has accompanied their emancipation.
Married people live longer than those who are not married and, although the underlying cause is
unknown, mortality is greater in the larger towns compared to the smaller ones. It has a negative
correlation with socio-economic status. The effect of pollution on mortality is still not clear.
(NETHERLANDS, MORTALITY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH)
FEBRUARY 1993 - VOLUME 41, NUMBER 2
93.67.11 - Dutch - D. MANTING
Which Women Experience Divorce? (Welke vrouwen maken een echtscheiding mee?) (p.18-29)
The present study deals with the factors underlying the divorce of married Dutch women from 1950 to
1969. Since the mid-1960s, the divorce rate has increased significantly and has remained stable
since the mid-1980s. Besides processes of emancipation, individualization and secularization, the
increase in divorces during the 1970s has been explained by increased cohabitation and changes in
the timing of marriage. The author, using the data from The Netherlands Fertility Survey (1988),
studies the impact on divorce of various factors such as: the woman's background, whether her
parents were divorced, her economic activity, her education, her age at marriage, cohabitation prior
to marriage, etc. Based on these data, the author estimates that 20% of women will experience
divorce in the first five years of their marriage. (NETHERLANDS, WOMEN, NUPTIALITY, DIVORCE)
MARCH 1993 - VOLUME 41, NUMBER 3
93.67.12 - Dutch - J. de BEER and A. SPRANGERS
Forecasts of International Migration (Prognose van de buitenlandse migratie) (p.13-28)
The authors forecast international migration in the Netherlands and distinguish three categories:
migration of workers, migrants arriving from other European Community countries or migrants for
humanitarian reasons (family reunification and formation, asylum seekers). Given the difficulties on
the European labour market, there should be an increase in the migration of workers, but as
migration covers both immigration and emigration, the final effect will be restricted. There will be
a continuation, although diminishing, of family reunification of Turks and Moroccans. The number of
resident permits awarded to asylum seekers will be limited not only in the Netherlands, but in other
EC countries also. Nothing is known about the fate of asylum seekers whose request is rejected. The
number of immigrants from Surinam increased when Independence was granted in 1975, but it may be
that this movement will decline also. The authors indicate the forecasting method used.
(NETHERLANDS, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
APRIL 1993 - VOLUME 41, NUMBER 4
93.67.13 - Dutch - W. D. van HOOM
Mortality in the Netherlands Population Forecasts (De sterfte in de Nationale Bevolkingsprognose)
(p.12-25)
In recent years, mortality trends have been more favourable to males than to females. The author
begins by discussing some delicate methodological problems for forecasting mortality: age
parameters, heterogeneity of mortality rates by age and cohort. Using existing literature and the
hypotheses adopted by experts for European countries, the author assumes that lmortality will
continue to decline very gradually and very slightly, except at the oldest ages, as he believes that
there will be no fundamental breakthrough in medicine or biology which could change prevention and
health care completely. The article also includes a brief description of the modelling of mortality
in the 1992 Netherlands Population Forecasts. (NETHERLANDS, MORTALITY, PROJECTIONS, POPULATION
PROJECTIONS)

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