Back to home page1992 - VOLUME XXX
93.44.01 - English - Matti SAARI
The Development of Family Structure in Finland in 1960-1987 (p. 5-17)
The purpose of the article is to study the development of family structure in Finland in 1960-1987. For the first time, the data provide total coverage of all family types. Cohabitation became increasingly common in the 1970s but has so far not been covered by the data of official family statistics. Further, sample data have only included family data on selected age groups. Statistics Finland has now developed a method by which family and cohabitation data may automatically be derived from information about people's place of residence, demographic characteristics, and relatives. The family statistics data for 1981 and 1987 have been reproduced. The article describes changes in the numbers of families of different types, families with young children and families of different sizes, as well as developments in the regional family structure during the 1960-1987 period. In addition, developments in the prevalence of living in a family and living in a family with young children are studied with reference to the 1981-1987 period. (FINLAND, FAMILY COMPOSITION, FAMILY STATISTICS)
93.44.02 - English - Magdolna CSERNAK, II. Gabor Aron utca 66, 1026 Budapest (Hungary)
Patterns of First Marriage in Finland and Hungary: A Comparative Study (p. 18-32)
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the nature and background of the difference between the nuptiality pattern in Finland and Hungary and to contribute to better understanding of the demographic behavior. The emphasis is on the first marriage. Historically, Finland belongs to the countries characterized by the European pattern while Hungary followed the so-called Eastern European pattern. Even if the both patterns have come closer to each other there are still differences between them which is seen, especially, in the age at marriage and the total first marriage rate. The author presents the marriage trends by using both period and cohort measures. In order to analyze the changes in the age structure and the intensity of the first marriage, the classical life table method was applied to cohorts born between 1945 and 1970. (FINLAND, HUNGARY, FIRST MARRIAGE, NUPTIALITY RATE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)
93.44.03 - English - Jarl LINDGREN, Marketta RITAMIES and Anneli MIETTINEN, The Population Research Institute, Väestöntutkimuslaitos, Kalevankatu 16, 00100 Helsinki (Finland)
Consensual Unions and Their Dissolution among Finnish Women Born in 1938-1969 (p. 33-43)
The article presents some emprical data on the development of consensual unions in Finland, with emphasis on pattern of entering these unions as well as their dissolution. The main source has been a survey conducted in 1989 which, for the first time, gives an opportunity to get a profound overview of the typical features of the life cycle of those cohabiting without marriage. In the survey about 4,000 women aged 22-51 years were interviewed. The article starts with an overview on the development and the present situation of consensual union as a form of cohabiting. Then it deals with the age at entering first consensual union and with the frequency of consensual unions ending in marriage. Even data on the children born in consensual unions is presented. Lastly, the dissolution pattern among consensual unions is elucidated by the authors. (FINLAND, CONSENSUAL UNION, FAMILY FORMATION)
93.44.04 - English - M. Nabil EL-KHORAZATY, 14000 Cove Lane Apt. 103, Rockville, Maryland 20851-1236 (U.S.A.)
Time Series Analysis of Three Centuries of Childbearing and Fertility Process in Finland (p. 44-67)
A new time series data set of childbearing and fertility-inhibiting indices for Finland since 1722 is constructed. Calculation of these macro-level indices is accomplished by the application of new demographic and statistical methodologies, which require only knowledge of age-specific fertility rates, available for Finland since 1776, and the Box-Jenkins time series forecasting technique. The results depict that Finland passed through various childbearing patterns. These patterns are characterized by increasing ages at first and last birth in the 18th century to stabilization in the following century at high levels. Since the beginning of the 20th century, ages at last birth declined dramatically while ages at first birth increased, then declined in the 1940s and stayed at that low level later on. Increases in both indices have been witnessed since the mid-1970s. (FINLAND, FERTILITY TRENDS, MATERNAL AGE, TIME SERIES)
93.44.05 - English - Wolfgang LUTZ and Christopher PRINZ, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria)
Long Range Population Prospects of Finland in the European Context (p. 68-80)
The population of Finland is projected along 11 different scenarios assuming widely diverging alternative trends in fertility, mortality and migration up to the year 2100. The definitions of these scenarios follow those of a recent study (Lutz, 1991) on Europe and North America. They range from constant rates to assuming replacement fertility versus a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.1, mortality stagnation versus a strong increase in life expectancy, and no immigration versus 30,000 migrants per year. The results show that no matter what scenario is chosen, the next 30 years will bring an enormous increase of the population over age 65. The proportion in working age will be relatively stable up to the year 2010 and then strongly decline under all conditions, which is a consequence of the Finnish baby-boom of the late 1940s. Projected total population sizes in 2050 will range from 3.5 million in the fertility decline scenario to 6.6 million in the high immigration scenario. (FINLAND, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS)
93.44.06 - English - Elli KARJALAINEN, Research Institute of Northern Finland, University of Oulu, Kauppakatu 25A, 87100 Kajaani (Finland)
Differentiation of Rural Areas in Kainuu, Finland (p. 81-94)
The aim of this article is to examine areal differences in development at the regional and local levels employing migration as the chief indicator. In order to obtain a classification of the municipalities and their internal structure a model for migration within a municipality is constructed, based on the notion that the relations between migration flows alter with time as the municipality or area concerned undergoes the processes of agglomeration of population and modernization. The material on which the survey is based consists of change of address registration data for those moving permanently, a total of 54,606 events applying to the rural municipalities of Kainuu in 1980-85. Areal units at a lower level are obtained by considering the land register villages and the built-up area - rural area dimension. Grouping analysis is used as the multivariate method for processing the data. (FINLAND, INTERNAL MIGRATION, RURAL AREAS)
93.44.07 - English - Riikka RAITIS and Riitta SAARINEN
Fertility and Family Planning in India and Kenya (p. 95-103)
This article compares the fertility pattern and the attitudes towards family planning in two culturally and geographically different societies, the growing slum area in Calcutta, India and Taita-Taveta, an agricultural area under high population pressure in Kenya. The studies are partly demographic and partly based on in-depth interviews. (INDIA, KENYA, FERTILITY, FAMILY PLANNING, ATTITUDE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
1993 - VOLUME XXXI
93.44.08 - English - Mauri NIEMINEN
Population Development in Finland - A Challenge for Society! (p. 5-15)
The most significant factor shaping the Finnish age pyramid has been fertility. After World War II fertility took an unprecedented climb. When fertility was at its highest in 1947, the total fertility rate was 3.46. After this fertility began to drop year by year. Because of the large proportion of the population composed by those of working age, Finland has had a favorable age structure compared to that of other countries. Finland's working-age population has been one of the highest in the world. But in the future this favorable age structure will change and the proportion of aging population will increase rapidly. In 2030 almost every third person will be over 65 years old in Finland. (FINLAND, AGE DISTRIBUTION, POPULATION PROJECTIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING)
93.44.09 - English - Eino JUTIKKALA
How Many Lived to Maturity? (p. 16-24)
Calculations have been made of the total child and adolescent mortality in Finland in the 1700s and 1800s and the beginning of the 1900s. The author examines the cohort mortality of children and adolescents in different periods, regions and social groups. He does this by using the family reconstruction method with the aid of genealogical tables. The study focuses on five populations. In these cases the common allegation that during preindustrial period half the children died before reaching maturity is somewhat exaggerated. (FINLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, MORTALITY TRENDS, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY)
93.44.10 - English - Marie REIJO and Tapani VALKONEN, Population Research Unit, Department of Sociology, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 33, 00014 Helsinki (Finland)
Population Development and the Changes in the Economic Structure of Finnish Urban Areas (p. 25-46)
This article describes population development in urban communities and differences therein found during the period 1975-1990. The causes behind these differences are analyzed by using data on the economic development of the communities (e.g. the changes in industry and unemployment). Economic development in 1975-90 is linked to the regional transition in labor distribution and industrial activity, with a focus on deindustrialization and the growing predominance of the service sector in the trade structure. Using a community typology compiled on the basis of the analyses, estimates are made of future development in various communities up to the year 2010. The article will present the main results of a study which comprises the demographical portion of a multidisciplinary Finnish research program entitled "Prospects for Finnish Localities". (FINLAND, URBAN POPULATION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURE, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)
93.44.11 - English - Jarl LINDGREN, Marketta RITAMIES and Anneli MIETTINEN, The Population Research Institute, Väestöntutkimuslaitos, Kalevankatu 16, 00100 Helsinki (Finland)
Consensual Unions and Fertility (p. 47-61)
This article examines how consensual unions affect the childbearing of couples who live in a marriage which has been preceded by premarital cohabitation. The study is focused on women under the age of 30 when they started their first union. It is based on three five-year cohorts who started living together in 1970-1984. The material used is from a survey carried out in 1989. The study deals with the pattern and frequency of giving birth to the first child by comparing the childbearing of the directly married with those whose marriage was preceded by cohabitation. By comparing the total number of children borne by women who have lived in an extra-marital cohabitation with different national means, the effect of premarital cohabitation on fertility is estimated. The study has shown that the total number of children in families is related to the length of premarital cohabitation. The couples who have lived longer without marriage tend to have less children than the directly married. (FINLAND, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, PREMARITAL COHABITATION)
93.44.12 - English - Marketta RITAMIES, Snellmaninkatu 29 C 37, 00170 Helsinki 17 (Finland)
Have the Aims of the Finnish Abortion Law Been Reached? (p. 62-71)
The Finnish abortion law and its development is evaluated and the grounds and aims of the law are examined. The development of the abortion situation is described. On the basis of the above, the author has reached the result that the Finnish abortion law has in many ways proven itself serviceable, the rate of abortions has reached such a low level that it is difficult to find a similar situation anywhere else in Europe. Illegal abortions have practically disappeared. (FINLAND, ABORTION POLICY, LEGISLATION, EVALUATION)
93.44.13 - English - Wolfgang LUTZ, IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria)
Effects of Children on Divorce Probabilities and of Divorce on Fertility: The Case of Finland 1984 (p. 72-80)
As a follow-up to the article, "The Demographic Dimensions of Divorce: The Case of Finland" by W. Lutz, A.B. Wils, and M. Nieminen, in Population Studies, 1991 (See summary 92.58.04, page 52, Review of Population Reviews n° 64 : April-June 1992), this study looks explicitly at the interactions between childbearing and divorce. Specifically, the study looks at the effects of parity and age of the youngest child on divorce probabilities controlling duration of marriage, and the effect of marital status and the duration since divorce on parity-specific birth probabilities. Generally, controlling for other demographic covariates tends to change the usually considered bivariate associations between childbearing and divorce. For instance, when considering marital duration divorce probabilities are highest for childless women and lowest for women with two or three children, whereas the bivariate perspective shows a peak for parity one women. (FINLAND, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, DIVORCE RATE, PARITY, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS)
93.44.14 - English - Elli KARJALAINEN, Research Institute of Northern Finland, University of Oulu, Kauppakatu 25A, 87100 Kajaani (Finland)
Change in the Population Structure in Finland (p. 81-90)
On an international scale, the number of aged people (65 years and older) in Finland is still relatively low but showing rapid increase. The primary reason is the strong decrease of fertility which leads to a decline in the share of the younger age groups. As the average life expectancy is on the increase, this will further contribute to the growing share of the aged population. Migration affects considerably the regional population structures: selective migration has distorted the age and sex structures especially in the rural areas. Population aging bring on new challenges in community planning and social policy. (FINLAND, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHY)
93.44.15 - English - Pekka PARKKINEN
Educational Expenditures in Finland up to the Year 2030 (p. 91-103)
In this paper expenditures on education and their share to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Finland are estimated until 2030. The estimate of the number of pupils is based on the 1991 population prognosis made by the Central Statistical Office of Finland. The actual education expenditures per pupil has been calculated for different levels of education in 1980-1990. In the future only real labor costs per pupil are assumed to increase. They will increase at the average rate of the labor productivity growth in the economy. Other real costs (teaching materials, welfare services, administrative costs, etc.) per pupil are assumed to be constant during the prognosis period. Although the school age population will clearly diminish, the real education expenditures will increase by one thirds up to 2030 in Finland. However, at the same time the share of these expenditures to the GDP will decrease by two percentage points. On the other hand social expenditures in proportion to the GDP will increase very rapidly due to the aging population. Yet the growth rate of the public expenditures is expected to be only sligthly higher than the growth rate of the GDP. (FINLAND, PROJECTIONS, EDUCATION, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES)
93.44.16 - English - Avo TRUMM, Dagmar KUTSAR and Urmas OJA
Transformation Process in Estonia: A Challenge for Social Policy (p. 104-110)
The aim of this study is to analyze the new economic situation households have to face in Estonia and to discuss the new tasks and responsibilities of social policy in this new situation. The data used are based on a sample of 419 households monitored in January 1993. The study reveals that low income and unequal income distribution is characteristic of today's Estonia. The average salary of households has continuously increased but the increase has all the time been lower than that of the cost of living. The article discusses the new sociopolitical tasks and responsibilities. The main task is to reach the optimal balance of limited resources between economic development and social expenditures. The state has to support disabled people who cannot work but it cannot take the responsibility of guaranteeing a minimum of living for everyone. (ESTONIA, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, SOCIAL POLICY)
93.44.17 - English - Riitta AUVINEN, Bredantie 6H, 02700 Kauniainen (Finland)
Challenges Facing Future Housing Policy (p. 111-124)
Since World War II the housing policy in Finland has been effective enough to reach the minimum norm for family dwellings set by IUFO presuming that occupants have the use of one room per person. From now on Finland ought to concentrate the building resources on bigger and better quality housing. The remaining housing base including mainly small apartments could then be used for young people who can be defined "homeless" by the new standards of housing. There is a slight evidence that the birth rate could be raised by the housing policy because of an attitudinal readiness in Finland for raising the number of children and level of housing. (FINLAND, HOUSING POLICY)
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