Back to home page1992 - NUMBER 15
93.60.01 - Chinese - Temu WANG, Department of Social Welfare, National Chung-chen University (China)
Alternative Population Policies in Taiwan, after the Under-Replacement Fertility (p. 1-16)
The total fertility rate in Taiwan reached the under-replacement level in the early 1980s. This momentum will lead towards a decline in population in the next few decades when rapid population ageing is then expected. According to projections, the old-age dependency ratio could soar to above the 50% level if the decline in fertility cannot be checked in the near future. It is suggested that a well-grounded social security system should be designed and put in effect to replace the family-supporting system which is deemed to decline along with the decline in the surviving number of adult children per parent, for the income of the elderly and their daily living conditions. To lessen the financial burden of future generations, it is also suggested that a population policy aimed at preventing a future decline in fertility should be designed and enacted. In order to achieve this, a tentative plan of promoting marriage and family formation has been proposed. (TAIWAN, POPULATION POLICY, SOCIAL SECURITY, AGED)
93.60.02 - Chinese - Jow-ching TU, Division of Social Sciences, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong), Kuanjeng CHEN, Sun Yat-sen Institute for Social Sciences and Philosophy, Academia Sinica (China), and Chaujong CHEN, Department of Social Welfare, National Chung-chen University (China)
Active Life Expectancy in Taiwan: Compression or Expansion? (p. 17-30)
This paper applies the multiple-decrement life table technique to the analysis of mortality and self-reported disability by national samples, each year from 1986 to 1989, for the population aged over 15. It was found that, during this period of time, the shifts in mortality and disability curves conformed to the compression hypothesis and the area in between the two curves shrunk in the four-year period. But since there are only four years of observation and the mortality transition in Taiwan has yet to reach the final and rising stage, the authors would tend to accept the result on a tentative basis. The sex differential in disability has been examined. It is concluded that, although at the younger ages women tend to spend less person-years as disabled persons, the situation is quite different at older ages. Women tend to have a greater chance of suffering from disability in old age and for a longer duration than do men. This is another indication that the compression in disability might be temporary. (TAIWAN, LIFE EXPECTANCY, DISABILITY TABLE, SEX DIFFERENTIALS)
93.60.03 - Chinese - Chien-chung HUANG
The Projection of No Self-Care Ability Elder and Necessary In-Home Nursing Professionals in Taiwan Area (p. 31-46)
In the space of 70 years (1920-1989), the Taiwan area has accomplished the population transition and an epidemiological transition at a faster rate than in the Western nations. This has led to dramatic changes in the age structure and the ageing population will increase at an even faster rate in the next forty to fifty years. Based on the cohort component method used in this study, the result of the population projection demonstrates that the aged population was equal to 6% (1,200,000) of the total Taiwan population in 1989, will increase to 10% (2,420,000) in 2009 and to over 20% (5,320,000) in 2034. Moreover, using multilogistic regression, the result shows that, even if improved medical and living standards can delay the occurrence of diseases to the final life stages of the elderly, the population of elderly people unable to care for themselves will still be increasing at a very fast rate. In 1989, this population numbered 50,000. According to the methods of compression of morbidity (low projection) and failure of success (high projection), this population will increase to 180,000 and 410,000 in 2034. In accordance with this huge ageing population and based on this projection, the number of nursing professionals required in 1994 will be 2,405 (low projection) and 13,845 (high projection); 11,709 (low) and 55,194 (high) in 2034. However, there were only ten nursing professionals in 1989 and 30 health care professionals in March 1990 in the Taiwan area. Thus, there is an urgent requirement for in-home nursing professionals and multi-health care systems. (TAIWAN, AGEING, AGED, FORECASTS, NURSES)
93.60.04 - Chinese - Chingli YANG, Institute of Social Science and Philosophy, Academia Sinica (China)
The Change of Labor Force in Taiwan: 1979-1990 (p. 47-60)
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of age composition on the labour force participation rate as well as the change in age-specific labour force participation rates (LFPR) for both males and females in Taiwan. A standardization technique has been used to analyze labour force participation data obtained from the Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey from 1979 to 1990. Results indicate that the age composition change between 1979 and 1990 has had a levelling effect on the LFPR for both males and females. During this period, the male LFPR has decreased while female LFPR has increased and then, levelled off. Other things being equal, the exact increase and decrease of LFPR for males and females are higher than the crude rate. The increased LFPR for females in Taiwan is mainly due to married women entering the labour market while few of them leave after childbirth; while the decrease in male LFPR is attributed to the expansion of education opportunities for teenagers and earlier retirement age of the older male population. (TAIWAN, AGE-SEX DISTRIBUTION, LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION)
93.60.05 - Chinese - Jen-te HWANG, Department of Economics, National Chengchi University (China)
The Effect of Demographic Changes on the Unemployment Rate in Taiwan: 1978-1990 (p. 61-76)
The purpose of this paper is to compute the effects of changes in the composition of age, sex and labour force participation rates and the general population and the labour force's education on the overall unemployment rate in Taiwan. The results show that the changes in the composition of age-sex and labour force participation rates have had an increasingly significantly downward pressure on the overall unemployment rate. However, the compositional changes in sex-specific education rates have exerted the opposite effect on the overall unemployment rate. Policy-makers should pay increasing attention to this phenomenon - it not only wastes educational resources, but will also exercise an unfavourable influence on Taiwan's future economic development. (TAIWAN, POPULATION DYNAMICS, UNEMPLOYMENT)
93.60.06 - English - K. Bruce NEWBOLD, Department of Geography, Shelley A. CHAMMBERS, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and Kao-Lee LIAW, Department of Geography, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4L8 (Canada)
Effects of Personal Factors on the Destination Choice Patterns of Canadian Immigrants: An Evaluation within a Multivariate Framework (p. 77-102)
This paper uses a cluster analysis and a multivariate logit model to assess the effects of six personal factors (ethnic origin, education, occupation, class of work, income and period of immigration) on the "established" destination choice patterns of immigrants in Canada. The study is based on the Public Use Sample of the 1981 census. The established destinations are defined as the provinces of residence on the census date. Although all six personal factors are shown to have significant effects on the destination choice patterns, their importance varies substantially. It turns out that ethnic origin is by far the most important factor. Occupation clearly ranks second. Period of immigration is of moderate importance. The remaining three factors are relatively unimportant. The results suggest that the immigration process will continue to result in a "patchy" cultural landscape, but may have little effect on the spatial variation in the quality of human capital in Canada. (CANADA, IMMIGRANT, GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION)
93.60.07 - English - Haunntarng TSENG, Taiwan Provincial Institute of Family Planning, Taiwan (China)
The Factors Influence Taiwanese's Immigrants Adaptation and Re-Emigration from the Republic of South Africa (p. 103-136)
This study tries to identify the determining factors behind Taiwanese decisions to emigrate to South Africa or to re-emigrate. Three socio-demographic variables are used as independent variables by factor analysis, namely, personal socio-economic achievement in South Africa, personal adaptive abilities in South Africa and personal family ties with Taiwan. Acculturation level and dissatisfaction level are the causes of their desire to re-emigrate or willingness to settle. Following use of discriminant analysis methods, the author suggests that a recipient country, such as South Africa, should train the adaptive abilities of Taiwanese immigrants, particularly with regard to learning the language, in order to raise their acculturation level and that they should be helped to attain socio-economic achievement in their new country in order to decrease their dissatisfaction level and to increase their willingness to stay permanently in the new country, so preventing them from becoming transients. (SOUTH AFRICA, IMMIGRANTS, ETHNIC GROUPS, ADJUSTMENT)
93.60.08 - English - Sulaiman M. BAH
Epidemiologic and Health Transition in Mauritius (p. 137-161)
This article reviews the trends in ten broad groups of causes of death in Mauritius over the period 1969-1986. By using age-standardized cause-specific death rates, the trends and changes in the various causes of death were described. The results of the changes were interpreted using the frameworks of the health transition theory and the various formulations of the epidemiologic transition theory. (MAURITIUS, EPIDEMIOLOGY, CAUSES OF DEATH)
93.60.09 - English - Chaonan CHEN, The Institute of Economic, Academia Sinica (China)
Extended Commuting and Migration in the Taipei Metropolitan Area (p. 161-183)
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between migration and extended commuting in the Taipei Metropolis. Specifically, the author is interested in two aspects of their relationships. One is the relative size or contribution of migration and extended commuting to the labour force of Taipei Metropolitan area. It is suspected that the volume of extended commuting has moved into the stage of superseding migration. The other is whether extended commuting and migration are alternatives to every group of labour force. It is believed that different groups may have different preferences. The results of analyzing the 1988 October labour force survey suggest that the two hypotheses are supported. Initially, we find that the volume of extended commuters supersedes that of migrants. Secondly, it is found that extended commuters and migrants come from different groups. Migrants are positively selected from their origins. They are younger and mostly unmarried. This is especially true for long-distance migration. The selectivity of extended commuters is somewhat different and the most important variable is occupation. Blue-collar workers are more likely to journey daily out of Taipei City to work in its periphery and other areas. On the contrary, there are more white-collar workers who commute from Taipei's periphery and other areas to work in Taipei City or from the periphery to other areas. Age and marital status for most types of extended commuter do not differ from their counterpart stay-at-homes. (TAIWAN, COMMUTING, LABOUR MIGRATION)
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