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1992 - VOLUME 8, NUMBER 3

93.65.01 - English - Emile DURKHEIM, c/o J. Simons, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ (U.K.)

Suicide and Fertility: A Study of Moral Staatistics (p. 175-197)

93.65.02 - English - Marianne SUNDSTRÖM, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden), and Frank P. STAFFORD, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (U.S.A.)

Female Labour Force Participation, Fertility and Public Policy in Sweden (p. 199-215)

This paper analyzes the role of public policy for Sweden's combination of high female labour force participation and high levels of fertility in the late 1980s and early 1990s. We present the central elements in the tax and family policies and use a disaggregated approach to assess their impact on Swedish fertility and female labour force participation. We show that these policies stimulate both fertility and women's paid work by reducing the costs of having children while requiring parents to be employed to collect full benefits. (SWEDEN, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FERTILITY, GOVERNMENT POLICY)

93.65.03 - English - Teresa Castro MARTIN, Population Division, United Nations, DC2-2056, 2 United Nations Plaza, New York, NY 10017 (U.S.A.)

Delayed Childbearing in Contemporary Spain: Trends and Differentials(p. 217-246)

During the last decade, family formation patterns in Spain have undergone a process of substantial transformation. Younger cohorts are increasingly postponing marriage and, once they enter marriage, they tend to delay childbearing. Partly as a result of these timing shifts, period measures such as total fertility rates are likely to underestimate "true" fertility levels. This study focuses on the first stage of family formation: the transition to motherhood. Following a birth interval approach, the analysis depicts recent trends and differentials in the timing of first birth and explores the role of premarital pregnancies and contraceptive practice on first interval dynamics. (SPAIN, FAMILY FORMATION, FIRST BIRTH, FIRST BIRTH INTERVAL)

93.65.04 - English - Oystein KRAVDAL, Section for Demography and Analysis of Living conditions, Central Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 8131, Dep. 0033, Oslo 1 (Norway)

The Weak Impact of Female Labour Force Participation on Norwegian Third-birth Rates (p. 247-263)

Individual-level retrospective data from the Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 are used to estimate the effects of various employment variables on the third-birth rates among post-war Norwegian birth cohorts. Women who appear to have a strong work orientation, and may face relatively high opportunity costs of childbearing, do not have particularly low probability of advancing to parity three. This is consistent with previous Swedish and British studies, and lends some support to the view that other factors than stronger employment preferences and increased job opportunities have been largely responsible for the "second demographic transition" in Europe. (NORWAY, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, BIRTH ORDER)

1992 - VOLUME 8, NUMBER 4

93.65.05 - English - France MESLE, Jacques Vallin, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75014 Paris (France), and Vladimir Shkolnikov, Center for Demography and Human Ecology, Morcow (Russia)

Mortality by Cause in the USSR in 1970-1987: The Reconstruction of Time Series (p. 281-308)

This paper is the first step in an exploration of Soviet cause-of-death statistics which became accessible after 1986. Its main aim is the reconstruction of consistent annual series for the period 1970-1987 in spite of changes in cause-of-death classification caused by the 1980 revision of the Soviet nosological system. In a second part, the series thus reconstructed are analysed to describe the main features of the evolution of mortality during these two decades, using first standardized mortality rates for several very important specific causes and, second, using a method of decomposition of life expectancy changes. For the first time, trends in causes of death are thus shown for the crucial period where life expectancy has grown again after two decades of regression. (USSR, DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS, CAUSES OF DEATH, MORTALITY)

93.65.06 - English - Lynda CLARKE, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ (U.K.)

Children's Family Circumstances: Recent Trends in Great Britain (p. 309-340)

Recent trends in family formation and dissolution have led to an increase in the diversity of types of family in which children live and to children experiencing more disruptions and changes throughout their childhood years. Our estimates suggest that only about one half of all children can now expect to spend their entire childhood living with their married, natural parents. For policy concerning the welfare of children, it is important to recognize the large proportion of children who will experience family disruption or the likelihood of transition between family types at some point in their childhood. (CHILDREN, LIVING CONDITIONS, FAMILY FORMATION, FAMILY DISINTEGRATION)

93.65.07 - English - Wolfgang LUTZ and Christopher PRINZ, IIASA, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg (Austria)

What Difference do Alternative Immigration and Integration Levels Make to Western Europe? (p. 341-361)

The population of Western Europe (EC plus EFTA) is seen as consisting of three sub-populations: the natives, the East-European immigrants, and the non-European immigrants. Different immigration levels assumed add to the non-native populations while different levels of "integration" describe the transition intensifies from a non-native to a native category. Alternative multi-state population projections to 2050 based on six scenarios show that (1) in the case of no further immigration the total population of Western Europe will start to decline after 2010; (2) the rate of integration influences the future size of the non-European population much more than alternative levels of immigration; (3) in the long run the Eastern Europeans will be quantitatively insignificant; (4) the Western European population is bound to significant population aging no matter what happens with immigration; and (5) in the short to medium run immigrants contribute to the alleviation of the pension burden. (WESTERN EUROPE, IMMIGRATION, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, FORECASTS)

93.65.08 - French - O. Lopez RIOS, A. MOMPART, and Guillaume WUNSCH, Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 place Montesquieu, Bte. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

The Health Care System and Regional Mortality: A Causal Analysis (Système de soins et mortalité régionale: une analyse causale) (p. 363-379)

We examine the impact of the health care system on regional adult mortality differences in Spain, distinguishing between the demand and supply of health care. We have used a covariance analysis model, fitted to the data using LISREL 7. The distinction made between supply and demand of medical care leads to a significant spatial impact of the use of the health care system on adult mortality. Except for accidents, however, the sign of the relation is opposite to what is expected. Better specification of the model could possibly reverse this conclusion. (SPAIN, MORTALITY, REGIONS, PUBLIC HEALTH)

1993 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 1

93.65.09 - English - Kari J. PITKÄNEN, Department of Economic and Social History, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 33, SF-00014 Helsinki (Finland), and James H. MIELKE, Department of Anthropology, University of Kansas, Kansas (U.S.A.)

Age and Sex Differentials in Mortality during Two 19th Century Population Crises (p. 1-32)

The exceptionally detailed Finnish materials are used to examine age- and sex-specific mortality in different regions during the country's last famine, the Great Famine of the 1860s. This is compared with another mortality crisis, the 1808-09 War. The results show that in cases when multiple infectious diseases were responsible for elevated mortality, the increases for different age categories were, by and large, proportional to the levels prevailing during normal times. However, excess mortality showed more variability for children. Furthermore, age- and sex-specific social behaviour (specifically large-scale temporary migration) during the crisis period shaped the age patterns and sex differentials in mortality. (FINLAND, HISTORY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, FOOD SHORTAGE, WAR)

93.65.10 - English - Jon ANSON, Department of Social Work, Ben Gurion University of the Negev, 84 105 Beer Sheba (Israel)

The Shape of Mortality Curves: An Analysis of Counties in England and Wales, 1911 (p. 33-54)

Previous analysis has shown that life tables may be distinguished by two orthogonal pieces of information, the level of mortality in the population and the relative shape of the mortality curve. We show that both the regions of England and Wales in 1911, and locality types (county boroughs, other urban, and rural) differ in the shape of their mortality curves. Using data for the administrative counties, we examine the underlying correlates of this differentiation, paying particular attention to the socioeconomic structure of the counties as reflected in their wealth, opportunity levels, and degree of urbanisation. (UNITED KINGDOM, HISTORY, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, LIFE TABLES)

93.65.11 - English - Clara H. MULDER, Department of Planning and Demography, Univeristy of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam (Netherlands), and Michael WAGNER, Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education, Berlin (Germany)

Migration and Marriage in the Life Course: A Method for Studying Synchronized Events (p. 55-76)

One of the main methodological problems in explaining migration from a life course perspective is the adequate modelling of synchronized events. On the basis of a West German sample of residence histories that is representative of three birth cohorts, of which the one born in 1939-41 is analysed, log-linear techniques were applied to separate the effects of being married, and of getting married, on migration rates. Results show that the dependence of short and long distance moves on age substantially diminish if marriage is considered as a synchronization variable. Moreover, the common finding that married persons move less than the unmarried is reversed at short distances if marriage is taken into account as an event which influences the probability of another (event dependence). (GERMANY, MIGRATION, MARRIAGE, STOCHASTIC MODELS)

1993 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 2

93.65.12 - English - Didier BLANCHET and Sophie PENNEC, INED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75014 Paris (France)

A Simple Model for Interpreting Cross-tabulations of Family Size and Women's Labour Force Participation (p. 121-142)

Simple 2 x 2 contingency tables cross-tabulating family size and activity status of mothers are analyzed with a logistic or log-linear model whose parameters can be interpreted as, respectively, the intrinsic value given to work by mothers, the value given to large families, and the degree of incompatibility between work and child care. An analysis of French data for 1968 and 1982 suggests that it is the increased value given to work which accounts best for activity and fertility changes over this time period, variation of the two other parameters playing only a minor role. The same result is observed, cross-sectionally, when analysing fertility and activity of women across a sample of French couples in 1982 stratified by education levels of both parents. But this simple explanation of activity and fertility differentials does not apply when analysing fertility and activity differentials across EEC countries, using data from the EUROSTAT Labour Force Survey of 1990. (FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, FERTILITY, MODELS)

93.65.13 - English - Anne Hélène GAUTHIER, Department of Applied Social Studies and Social Research, Barnett House, Wellington Square, Oxford, OX1 2ER (U.K.)

Towards Renewed Fears of Population and Family Decline? (p. 143-167)

This paper examines the extent to which governments have been concerned by the demographic changes which have taken place since the 1960s. The comparative analysis, based on a review of selected demographic-related state initiatives, reveals major differences across countries in the attitudes of governments to population and family issues. The paper also contrasts the differences between the post-1960s situation and the 1930s one when the low fertility levels and the transformations undergone by the family had also captured the attention of governments. The paper then concludes by looking at the role played by non-governmental social actors in the discussion surrounding population and family issues. (POPULATION POLICY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

93.65.14 - English - Jan H.M. NELISSEN and Ad P. VOSSEN, Tilburg University, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg (Netherlands)

The Impact of Population Growth on the Standard of Living. Demo-economic Scenarios for the Netherlands (p. 169-196)

The core of the article can be comprised in the question: Will population ageing become a threat to our standard of living? Because the demographic and the economic system - linked together in this question - share significant determinants, the future state of both systems has been derived from the same mother scenarios. In order to explore a broad range of possibilities two strongly contrasting mother scenarios serve as the starting-points of the analyses. The economic-demographic relationship is mediated through a simple Cobb-Douglas production function. The question of whether the ageing process will jeopardize the standard of living is, for each of the demographic projections, answered by comparing them with three economic targets, formulated in terms of GNP per capita growth and capital stock growth. The most important conclusion is that in the long run neither of the scenarios developed will generate an economic growth comparable with that of the 1960s and 1970s. (POPULATION GROWTH, STANDARD OF LIVING, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, POPULATION PROJECTIONS)

93.65.15 - French - Hélène DESROSIERS and Céline LE BOURDAIS, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique (INRS) - Urbanisation, 3465 rue Durocher, Montréal, QC H2X 2C6 (Canada), and Yves PERON, Département de Démographie, Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC H3C 3J7 (Canada)

Dynamics of Single Parent Status in Canada (La dynamique de la monoparentalité féminine au Canada (p. 197-224)

In this article we look at the timing and duration of episodes of single parent status during the life course of various cohorts of women. The analysis was carried out with the help of retrospective data from a Canadian family survey carried out in 1984 which had a sample size of over 7 000 women. The results, derived from life-table techniques, show that over one woman in three was likely to experience a period of single-parent status at some time in her life at the risks current in 1984. There were few differences between different cohorts in respect of the duration of time spent as a single parent. On the other hand, different cohorts of women became single parents, and ceased being single parents, for very different reasons. (CANADA, ONE-PARENT FAMILY, LIFE CYCLE)

1993 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 3

93.65.16 - English - Jay WINTER, Pembroke College, Cambridge CB2 1RF (U.K.), and Joshua COLE, University of Georgia, Georgia (U.S.A.)

Fluctuations in Infant Mortality Rates in Berlin during and After the First World War (p. 235-263)

The social crisis of war, defeat and postwar instability in the period 1914-24 is reflected in the history of infant mortality in Berlin. The prewar trend of infant mortality decline was interrupted by the war, and resumed its course only a decade later. From 1917 to 1923 there was a crisis in illegitimate infant mortality in Berlin, at a time when over 20% of all births were illegitimate. Only by disaggregating infant mortality statistics into legitimate and illegitimate categories can we appreciate fully the impact of the war on the most vulnerable and the most deprived parts of Berlin's population. (GERMANY, WAR, INFANT MORTALITY, HISTORY)

93.65.17 - English - Sten MARTINELLE, Population Research Office Statistics (Sweden)

The Timing of First Birth. Analysis and Prediction of Swedish Birth Rates (p. 265-286)

"The timing of first birth" is taken to mean the distribution of first births among a cohort of women. (1) How large is the final proportion of women who have at least one birth and (2) what is the distribution of women by age at first birth? "The percentage of non-fecund women" and "the age-specific risk for a fecund woman of remaining childless" are useful parameters in predicting final childlessness. These parameters are estimated. It is found that the risk of a fecund woman remaining childless is substantial even at the most common childbearing age. The effect of postponement of births on final childlessness is demonstrated and quantified. It is shown that the higher level of childlessness among women with long education can be explained by postponement of childbearing. The expression "later means fewer" is also true for first births. A method of predicting first birth rates, presented earlier by the author, is discussed and shown to give a good fit to Swedish data. (SWEDEN, FIRST BIRTH, INFERTILITY, COHORT ANALYSIS)

93.65.18 - English - Guang GUO, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Hamilton Hall, Chapel Hill, NC (U.S.A.)

Mortality Trends and Causes of Death: A Comparison between Eastern and Western Europe, 196Os-1980s (p. 287-312)

Two distinctive mortality trends emerged in Europe between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s. Eastern European mortality rates remained constant for women over 40 and increased substantially for men over 35. while mortality in Western Europe decreased considerably above age 35 for women and men. I examine causes of deaths, using Pollard's method of decomposing changes in life expectancy into components specific to each age group and cause of death. Western European success in coping with circulatory system diseases at middle-to-old ages are by far the most important cause for the differing trends. Western Europe was also more successful in lowering mortality from malignant neoplasms and digestive and respiratory system diseases primarily at middle-to-old ages. (WESTERN EUROPE, EASTERN EUROPE, MORTALITY TRENDS, CAUSES OF DEATH, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

1993 - VOLUME 9, NUMBER 4

93.65.19 - English - L. VAN DIJK, Department of Sociology, Alice H.E.B. KOOT-DU BUY, and Jacques J. SIEGERS, CIAV, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands)

Day-care Supply by Dutch Municipalities (p. 315-330)

In this article the supply of day care is assumed to be demand-induced. Demand factors include both direct and indirect effects. The indirect effects follow from the composition by gender and political party of the members of the town council. The higher the percentage of both left-wing and female councillors the higher the supply of day care. Although the direct effects of the demand factors are found to be stronger than the indirect effects, the results indicate that the mediating effect of the composition of the council according to gender and political party cannot be ignored. (NETHERLANDS, DAY CARE CENTRES, LOCAL GOVERNMENT)

93.65.20 - English - Kène HENKENS, Liana MEIJER, NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague (Netherlands), and Jacques J. SIEGERS, CIAV, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht (Netherlands)

The Labour Supply of Married and Cohabiting Women in the Netherlands, 1981-1989 (p. 331-352)

The analysis of labour supply involves two issues: whether individuals participate in the labour market and, if they do, for how many hours. In this article we investigate the differences in labour supply of married women and cohabiting women in the Netherlands; we try to answer the question how these differences can be explained. From this study, it can be concluded that differences between both categories of women in participation and in weekly hours worked can predominantly be explained by differences in characteristics (e.g. age, net wage rate, and age of children), than by differences in behaviour. The empirical results indicate that cohabiting women are more economically independent than married women. However for married women we found evidence that there was increased economic independence during the 80s: i.e. their weekly, hours work has become less affected by the income of their partners. (NETHERLANDS, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT, LABOUR SUPPLY, MARRIED WOMEN, CONSENSUAL UNION)

93.65.21 - French - Michel POULAIN, F.N.R.S. - Institut de Démographie, Université Catholique de Louvain, 1 place Montesquieu, Bte. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

Confronting the Statistics on Inter-European Migration: Towards a Greater Harmonization? (Confrontation des statistiques de migrations intra-europdennes: Vers plus d'harrnonisation?) (p. 353-381)

Each international migration stream can be enumerated twice: at the time of departure from the country of emigration and at the time of arrival in the country of immigration. In practice, errors in international migration statistics are a major obstacle to the accurate analysis of migration flows. In connection with the process of harmonization set in train by EUROSTAT several years ago, a method of correcting defective migration data is proposed here, which makes use of this double enumeration. The method is applied to available data in a preliminary analysis. The correction factors presented here through this mathematical approach should turn out to be useful in more than one respect: to illuminate substantial problems of incompatibility of migration data and to follow the progress of the harmonization of those data. (WESTERN EUROPE, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, DEFECTIVE DATA)

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