Back to home page1992 - NUMBER 33
93.74.01 - English - John HOBCRAFT, Department of Population Studies, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of London, London (U.K.)
Fertility Patterns and Child Survival: A Comparative Analysis (p. 1-31)
This article presents information on the impact of fertility patterns upon child survival for 18 countries from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Results are also contrasted with those from earlier World Fertility Surveys (WFS). The findings generally serve to confirm that children born to teenage mothers, especially those under age 18, experience considerable excess mortality before age 5. More important at the population level is the deleterious effect of short birth intervals for child survival. Data quality, although a problem, is shown not to have a major distorting impact on these findings. Further analysis in 10 categories of family formation is carried out. The more important findings to emerge are that the overall impact of poor timing of births on child survival is substantial in many countris but thas been improving over time, probably as a result of increased use of family planning, in a number of cases (e.g., Colombia, Morocco). On the other hand, child mortality gains in Senegal are being inhibited by a worsening pattern of timing of births. The policy implications of these findings are briefly assessed. (BIRTH SPACING, INFANT MORTALITY, EXCESS MORTALITY)
93.74.02 - English - Wolfgang LUTZ and Sergei SCHERBOV, IIASA, 2361 Laxenburg (Austria)
Sensitivity of Aggregate Period Life Expectancy to Different Averaging Procedures (p. 32-46)
When aggregating the observed period life expectancies of smaller units (countries) into larger ones (regions or world), one can either merge the populations at risk and deaths according to age groups and recalculate life expectancy from the joint age-specific mortality rates, or one can simply calculate a weighted average of the individual life expectancies, where usually births are taken as the weights. The Population Division of the United Nations Secretariat recently switched from the second to the first procedure. This results in a life expectancy for the world total which is 2.5 years higher. For less heterogeneous aggregates, the difference is less. This article gives special attention to the fact that the joint life expectancy calculated by merging the populations may even be outside the range of life expectancies in the constituent populations. Extensive simulations are performed to estimate the empirical relevance of this seemingly paradoxical phenomenon, using various sets or model life-tables. It also shows how the phenomenon depends on the difference between the constituent life expectancies and on the age distributions of the populations concerned. (LIFE EXPECTANCY, METHODOLOGY)
93.74.03 - English - Ian TIMAEUS, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London (U.K.)
Estimation of Adult Mortality from Paternal Orphanhood: A Reassessment and a New Approach (p. 47-63)
This article proposes a new procedure for estimating men's mortality from paternal orphanhood which generally yields more accurate results than the existing approach. A procedure for estimating mortality from maternal orphanhood data based on consistent assumptions is also presented. The theory underlying these methods is outlined, focusing on aspects of it that have not been explained fully in the existing literature and that influence the specification and robustness of the models used for estimation. The article also points out an error made in the tabulation of the weighting factors used until now to estimate mortality from paternal orphanhood. Investigations using simulated data represented which support the theoretical arguments that suggest that the paternal orphanhood method is more robust than has often been assumed and which confirm that the new approach usually produces more accurate estimates than the weighting factors. (MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, ADULT MORTALITY, ORPHANS, METHODOLOGY)
93.74.04 - English - Alberto PALLONI, Centre for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin (U.S.A.), and Yean Ju LEE, Population Research Centre, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (U.S.A.)
Some Aspects of the Social Context of HIV and Its Effects on Women, Children and Families (p. 64-87)
This article explores the effects of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrom (AIDS) epidemic on women and children in African countries. We identify some of the relations between women's (and children's) social positions and roles and the impact of HIV/AIDS and argue that social conditions prevailing in Africa (and elsewhere, in parts of South and Central America) not only may increase the exposure to the risk of contracting the infection but also may magnify its deleterious effects on the health and social and economic welfare of women and children. We attempt to provide numerical illustrations of these effects but their validity depends entirely on the validity of assumptions that remain to be verified. (AFRICA, AIDS, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, SOCIAL CONDITIONS)
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