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SEPTEMBER 1994 - VOLUME 20, NUMBER 3
95.76.1 - English - Charles HIRSCHMAN, Department of Sociology, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington, Seattle (U.S.A.), Joo Ean TAN, Department of Sociology, University of Singapore (Singapore), Aphichat CHAMRATRITHIRONG and Philip GUEST, Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University, Salaya (Thailand)
The path to below replacement-level fertility in Thailand (p. 82-87 & 107)
In one generation, from 1970 to 1990, average fertility in Thailand declined from six or seven births per woman to below replacement-level fertility. Even in an age of rapid fertility transitions, the Thai case is exceptional. A comparison of data from seven different censuses and surveys over this period shows a consistent pattern of fertility decline. The primary evidence that the Thais reached below-replacement fertility in the late 1980s comes from time-series estimates of fertility for the early and mid-1980s, calculated from the 1990 Census and supported by the 1987 Demographic and Health Survey. Most demographers underestimated the pace of Thailand's fertility decline and did not expect replacement fertility until late in the 1990s. (THAILAND, FERTILITY DECLINE, BELOW REPLACEMENT FERTILITY)
95.76.2 - English - T. RAJARETNAM and R.V. DESHPANDE, JSS Institute of Economic Research, Vidyagiri, Dharwad (India) The effect of sex preference on contraceptive use and fertility in rural South India (p. 88-95)
Many women in rural South India either postpone or avoid adopting family planning because of their preferences for the birth of a child of a particular sex, according to analysed of data from four cross-sectional surveys that were conducted between 1985 and 1990 and from eight evaluation surveys of sterilization and IUD acceptors that were conducted between 1982 and 1989. Overall, couples prefer families composed of at least one son and one daughter, but in areas where contraceptive prevalence rates are high, most couples have two sons, with or without a daughter, before they initiate contraceptive use; in low-prevalence areas, couples most often have two sons and one daughter before beginning to practice family planning. In the absence of sex preference, contraceptive prevalence rates could be expected to increase by about 12% in high-prevalence areas and by around 25% in low-prevalence areas; in both areas, levels of marital fertility could be expected to decline by about 20% from current levels. (INDIA, CONTRACEPTIVE USAGE, SEX PREFERENCE)
95.76.3 - English - Thomas W. VALENTE, Center for Communication Programs, School of Public Health, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland (U.S.A.) et al. Radio promotion of family planning in the Gambia (p. 96-100)
Approximately 400 randomly chosen men and women living in a selected area of the Gambia were surveyed in 1991 to determine the effects of a radio drama about family planning issues. Those who heard the serial drama could name significantly more contraceptive methods than those who had not (5.5 vs. 4.2), and they had significantly more positive attitudes about family planning (11.3 vs. 10.3). Those who heard the program were also more likely to use a modern method than those who did not (35% vs. 16%). The effect was greatest among uneducated individuals: Program exposure was associated with an increase in knowledge, from 3.8 methods to 5.2 methods; an increase in positive attitudes, from 9.9 to 11.3; and an increase in conraceptive users, from 10% to 27%. (GAMBIA, FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES, PROGRAMME EVALUATION, PROPAGANDA, RADIO)
95.76.4 - English - Quanhe YANG, Program on Population, East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii (U.S.A.) Determinants of the decline in parity progression ratios in China, 1979-1984: A factor analysis of provincial data (p. 100-107)
Provincial data for China are used to examine the interrelationships between socioeconomic development, family planing and changes in parity progression ratios between 1979 and 1984, using factor analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results indicate that at the provincial level, a decline in progression from first births to second births (indicating acceptance of the one-child family norm) depended largely on the province's level of socioeconomic development. In contrast, the family planning program exerted the most significant influence on the decline in progression from second births to third births (and probably to higher parities as well), independent of socioeconomic conditions. (CHINA, PARITY PROGRESSION RATIO, FERTILITY DECLINE, PROVINCES)
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