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United Kingdom (London) 58

POPULATION STUDIES

MARCH 1995 - VOLUME 49, NUMBER 1

96.58.1 - English - P. SANDIFORD, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA (U.K.), J. CASSEL, Instituto Centroamericano de la Salud, Apartado 2234, Managua (Nicaragua), M. MONTENEGRO, Universidad Nacional Aut?noma de Nicaragua, Managua (Nicaragua), and G. SANCHEZ, Instituto Costarricense de Investigaci?n y Ense?anza en Nutrici?n y Salud, Apartado 4-2250, Tres R'os (Costa Rica)

The impact of women's literacy on child health and its interaction with access to health services (p. 5-17)

Research has consistently demonstrated a strong correlation between women's education and child health, but the absence of data from intervention studies has left open the possibility that this may be due to the confounding effects of wealth or social privilege. Moreover, it is not known what mechanisms mediate the education-health link, nor how it is affected by access to health services. In Nicaragua during the 1980s, thousands of adults became literate through a mass education campaign. This provided a rare opportunity to measure the impact of women's literacy on child health for women who otherwise would have almost certainly remained illiterate for the rest of their lives, and to assess whether access to health services increases or decreases the advantage conferred by education. Results from this retrospective cohort study of 4 434 women show that among the children of women who became literate exclusively by adult education, mortality and risk of malnutrition are significantly lower than among those women who remained illiterate. Furthermore, when the infant mortality rates are given approximate time locations, a sharp reduction is found following the adult education campaign for the adult-education group, but not for the illiterate or formal-schooling groups. The survival advantage conferred by education was significantly greater among those with poor access to health services. The results also suggest that the effect of education in reducing the risk of malnutrition operates independently of its effect on mortality, and that both are independent of wealth and their parents' decision to educate their daughters. (NICARAGUA, INFANT MORTALITY, MATERNAL AND CHILD HEALTH, EDUCATION OF WOMEN, LITERACY, PUBLIC HEALTH)

96.58.2 - English - Gigi SANTOW, Demography Unit, University of Stockholm, S-106 91 Stockholm (Sweden) Coitus interruptus and the control of natural fertility (p. 19-43)

In this article I argue that pre-transitional natural fertility was sometimes controlled through birth-spacing, and that coitus interruptus was probably an important means of such control. First, the motivation for spacing was often strong, although not necessarily associated with a desire for family limitation; and control through spacing, although much harder to detect than a parity-dependent deceleration of the rate of childbearing, has been identified unequivocally in some pre-transitional and transitional populations. Secondly, coitus interruptus is reasonably effective and harmonizes with ancient and persistent notions of reproductive physiology; and evidence for its use comes both from statements of criticism and advocacy, and from a rich set of metaphors and euphemisms. The scenario of natural fertility controlled by means such as coitus interruptus is not offered as an alternative to the emergence of family limitation, which was probably the great innovation of the fertility transition. Rather, it directs us to recognize the diversity of the childbearing behaviour of the past, just as we recognize that of today. (COITUS INTERRUPTUS, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, BIRTH SPACING, HISTORY)

96.58.3 - English - Daniel M. GOODKIND, Department of Sociology, Box 1916, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (U.S.A.) The significance of demographic triviality: Minority status and zodiacal fertility timing among Chinese Malaysians (p. 45-55)

The hypothesis that minority status creates social tensions that affect fertility behaviour attracted much attention during the late 1960s and 1970s, but then disappeared after 1980. This sudden exit was due to a combination of methodological difficulties in distilling the independent effects of minority status from other socioeconomic factors, weaknesses or ambiguities in the empirical record, and other difficulties. This paper examines a natural experiment that serendipitously by-passes more of these problems than has been heretofore possible - the attempt by Chinese in Malaysia to time births into the auspicious Year of the Dragon. A multivariate model shows that this unique fertility behaviour was more common in Malaysian districts with smaller proportions of Chinese, which suggests that minority status can directly affect ethnic identity. The results also highlight a paradoxical solution to a grander problem facing sociodemographic theory. Before we can posit that culture or values play an independent role in transitions to lower fertility, we should first trace a baseline definition of these values from the study of demographically trivial events. (MALAYSIA, CHINA, ETHNIC MINORITIES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, VALUE SYSTEMS)

96.58.4 - English - Fjalar FINN?S, Institutet f?r Finlands svensk Samh?llforskning, 65100 Vasa (Finland) Entry into consensual unions and marriages among Finnish women born between 1938 and 1967 (p. 57-70)

This study, based on a survey undertaken in 1989, clearly illustrates the dramatic changes in family formation behaviour that have occurred in Finland. Whereas only about one-tenth of the first unions of women born between 1938 and 1942 began as consensual unions, after the cohort of 1962 only one-tenth were formal marriages. These changes lagged some ten years behind the corresponding ones in Sweden, but were about five years ahead of Norway. In Finland, up to the present, most consensual unions have constituted a temporary state which precedes proper family life. Most couples married in connection with the birth of the first child. Consensual union as a permanent lifestyle is generally connected with a low level of education of women. (FINLAND, CONSENSUAL UNION, MARRIAGE, FAMILY FORMATION)

96.58.5 - English - Pekka MARTIKAINEN Mortality and socio-economic status among Finnish women (p. 71-90)

This study uses record linkage data for all Finnish women aged 35-64 years to examine how different measures of socioeconomic status are related to mortality, and how these relationships vary according to employment status, marital status, motherhood, or age. Socio-econornic mortality differentials among Finnish women exist for all cause-of-death groups analysed in this study. Although important discrepancies were observed, the patterns of mortality differentials were broadly similar by education, occupational status, family disposable income, and housing tenure. The strength of mortality differentials, however, varied according to the measure of socioeconomic status used. The results indicate that no single indicator of socio-economic status is ideal. Different indicators are by no means interchangeable, and each may depict a distinct aspect of socio-economic status. Some indicators are, however, unsuitable for specific purposes. For example, researchers should hesitate to use income as a socio-economic indicator, when they are interested in causal analysis; in a middle-aged population the causal order of income, health, and mortality is unclear. Income, as well as some other indicators, is also very difficult to obtain for all persons on the basis of equal and relatively simple criteria. In order to understand how socioeconomic status affects mortality it is potentially very useful to use several indicators simultaneously. (FINLAND, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, MORTALITY DETERMINANTS, SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS, METHODOLOGY)

96.58.6 - English - Sam CLARK, University of Pennsylvania (U.S.A.), Elizabeth COLSON, University of California (U.S.A.), James LEE and Thayer SCUDDER, California Institute of Technology (U.S.A.) Ten thousand Tonga: A longitudinal anthropological study from Southern Zambia, 1956-1991 (p. 91-109)

The Gwembe Study was launched in 1956 to monitor the responses of 57,000 Tonga-speakers from the Middle Zambezi Valley to involuntary relocation. Since then, periodic censuses and frequent field visits have generated a wide variety of information. This article examines the demography of four Gwembe Tonga villages from 1956 to 1991, a period characterized first by relocation, then prosperity, and finally by economic hardship. White nuptiality does not respond significantly to socio-economic trends, marital fertility falls sharply during relocation, rebounds with the onset of prosperity, and decreases slowly during the most recent decade of economic hardship. Mortality of the very young and old is also sensitive to such changes. There is striking excess male mortality in all periods, especially among male infants and in particular male twins. The sex ratio at 'birth' is 92. This abnormal sex ratio at birth may be the result of conscious sex preference favouring females. (ZAMBIA, ETHNIC MINORITIES, FORCED MIGRATION, DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILES)

96.58.7 - English - Jon PEDERSEN, FAFO Centre for International Studies, Box 2497, T?yen, N-0608, Oslo (Norway) Drought, migration and population growth in the Sahel: The case of the Malian Gourma, 1900-1991 (p. 111-126)

This paper explores the development of the population of the Gourma in Northern Mali from the beginning of this century to the present. As part of Northern Sahel, the area has been hard-hit by at least four droughts this century and is among the least developed in Mali. The data used include the available population censuses, colonial records and recent survey research. The droughts of 1973 and 1984 may have increased child mortality, but the most important effects may have been short-term reductions in fertility, as well as increased migration. While approximately 30 per cent of adult men are absent, the overall picture of migration is much more complex than simply one of emigration, as migration into the Gourma and internal redistribution of population also play an important role. (MALI, DROUGHT, MORTALITY, FERTILITY, MIGRATION, HISTORY)

96.58.8 - English - Lin JIANG, Population Studies Centre, University of Pennsylvania (U.S.A.) Changing kinship structure and its implications for old age support in urban and rural China (p. 127-145)

This study explores the ramifications of China's imminent population ageing at the family and kinship level - by simulating China's evolving family and kinship structure. Results from such simulations suggest that the burden of supporting old parents is likely to increase tremendously, quadrupling for urban families and doubling for rural families by the year 2030, when China's baby-boomers will enter their old age. Increases of such magnitudes suggest that family alone is unlikely to be able to meet the demands of the rapidly increasing elderly population. Public assistance, especially to rural families, is urgently needed to ensure that the family will not be overstrained by the burden of old age support. The results of this study also point out the potential of tapping the resources among the elderly population to compensate for the loss in support from children. Given their improved health status, the young elderly could provide substantial assistance in caring for the older and more frail elderly. (CHINA, DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING, AGED, SOCIAL SECURITY, KINSHIP)

96.58.9 - English - Shiro HORIUCHI, Rockefeller University, 1230, York Avenue, New York, NY 10021 (U.S.A.) The cohort approach to population growth: A retrospective decomposition of growth rates for Sweden (p. 147-163)

Demographic changes affect population growth not only during the same period, but also in later years. A method for measuring those later effects is developed in this paper, by adopting a cohort perspective of population growth and decomposing the current growth rate into contributions of past demographic changes. Its application to 210 years of Swedish demographic history indicates that events several decades ago could exert substantial impacts on current population growth. The decomposition results reflect some typical patterns of demographic and epidemiological transitions as well as such historically unique events as the baby boom of the mid-1940s and the emigration boom to the United States. In addition, the results provide a quantitative explanation for the puzzling combination of the positive actual and negative intrinsic growth rates in recent Sweden. (SWEDEN, GROWTH RATE, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY)

96.58.10 - English - Bertrand DESJARDINS, D?partement de d?mographie, Universit? de Montr?al (Canada) Bias in age at marriage in family reconstitutions: Evidence from French-Canadian data (p. 165-169)

Age-at-marriage estimates from family reconstitutions may be biased downward when they are based only on marriages of people who continue to live in their parish of birth, because when the probability of migrating rises with age, younger people are selected in preference to older ones. Micro-simulations show that the bias can have dramatic effects. In this paper French-Canadian data are used to investigate the importance of the bias and to verify empirically the micro-simulation results. Although a high proportion of people moved between birth and marriage, the bias had virtually no effect, given the specific characteristics of the migrations. If one cannot avoid discussing the timing of migration before marriage, when measuring age at first marriage using only data on "stayers", it is just possible that in most settings, it is the same for those who lived in their parish of birth, and those who had moved. (CANADA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGE AT MARRIAGE, FAMILY RECONSTITUTION)

JULY 1995 - VOLUME 49, NUMBER 2

96.58.11 - English - Sonalde DESAI, Department of Sociology, University of Maryland (U.S.A.) When are children from large families disadvantaged? Evidence from cross-national analyses (p. 195-210)

Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 16 less developed countries, this paper examines the impact of family size on children's physical growth. To explore the conditions under which children in large families are disadvantaged compared with those from smaller families, results from country-specific regressions of children's height-for-age on family size are interpreted in light of a variety of socioeconomic indicators. This exercise suggests that the effect of family size on children's well-being depends on the extent to which parents - rather than the extended family or state - bear the cost of rearing children, and on the level of economic development. With the emphasis on privatization and reduction in state support for food, health care, and education, parents are becoming increasingly responsible for the welfare of their children. If this trend is accompanied by increasing nuclearization of the family, there will be very few sources of support left for large families. Thus, the burden of high fertility is more likely to be felt directly by parents and, as a result, by their children. Although this pressure may lead to a decline in fertility over the long run, in the short run it is likely to increase the vulnerability of children in large families. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, CHILD DEVELOPMENT, LARGE FAMILY)

96.58.12 - English - Barbara A. ANDERSON, Population Studies Centre, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (U.S.A.), and Brian D. SILVER, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (U.S.A.)

Ethnic differences in fertility and sex ratios at birth in China: Evidence from Xinjiang (p. 211-226)

This study uses data from the 1990 Census of China for Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region to examine phenomena that, to date, have been examined primarily at the national level: fertility and sex ratios at birth of women who already have at least one surviving child. Comparing data for Uighurs, Kazakhs, Hui, and Han, it finds enormous differences in fertility between the nationalities in the presence of high levels of fertility control. Also, for all four nationalities the extent of fertility control is dependent on the sex of surviving children. Women who had no previous sons, or who had many daughters, were likely to continue to try to have children even at ages and parities past which they would normally have stopped childbearing. Finally, disproportionately feminine sex ratios at birth are found for couples who have had several sons and no daughters. Hence, researchers interested in the question of unusual sex ratios at birth in China need to account for 'missing boys' as well as 'missing girls'. (CHINA, ETHNIC GROUPS, SEX RATIO, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, SEX PREFERENCE)

96.58.13 - English - Noreen GOLDMAN, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08540 (U.S.A.), Shigesato TAKAHASHI, Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Tokyo (Japan), and Yuanreng HU, WESTAT, Rockville, MD 20850 (U.S.A.) Mortality among Japanese singles: A re-investigation (p. 227-239)

This analysis uses prefecture-level data on deaths by cause and marriage type in Japan to test hypotheses which relate the 'arranged marriage' system to cause-specific mortality patterns among single Japanese men and women. The results from this analysis, combined with earlier findings, confirm the importance of the mate selection process in producing atypically high and rapidly declining mortality rates among Japanese singles, and suggest that the presence of tuberculosis, along with several other diseases, was an important component of the screening process for potential spouses. The findings also highlight the difficulties of identifying marriage selection mechanisms in industrialized societies from cause of death data. (JAPAN, BACHELORS, SPINSTERS, DIFFERENTIAL MORTALITY, CAUSES OF DEATH, ARRANGED MARRIAGE)

96.58.14 - English - Victoria A. VELKOFF, International Programs Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233 (U.S.A.), and Jane E. MILLER, Institute for Health, Health Care Policy and Aging Research, and Department of Urban Studies and Community Health, Rutgers University (U.S.A.) Trends and differentials in infant mortality in the Soviet Union, 1970-90: How much is due to misreporting? (p. 241-258)

We use recently released data on perinatal mortality and cause of death to assess how much of the spatial and temporal variation in infant mortality in the former Soviet Union is attributable to differences in the extent of misreporting. We demonstrate that the dramatic rise in infant mortality that occurred in the mid-1970s was accounted for in large part by an increase in death rates from causes which predominate after the first month of life, particularly in the Central Asian republics, but also in the more developed Baltic and European republics. Improvements in the classification of perinatal deaths do not appear to have played a significant role in explaining trends in reported infant mortality in the 1970s, but may have been responsible for some of the rise (or lack of decline) during the late 1980s. Despite the apparent improvements in the recording of deaths that occurred shortly after birth, there is evidence in several republics of substantial misclassification of early infant deaths as late fetal deaths as recently as 1990. Because such a pattern would lead to the omission of many infant deaths, it appears that infant mortality rates may have been understated in several of the less developed republics even at the end of the period studied. (USSR, INFANT MORTALITY, PERINATAL MORTALITY, CIVIL REGISTRATION, QUALITY OF DATA, CAUSES OF DEATH)

96.58.15 - English - Cormac ? GR?DA and Brendan WALSH, Department of Economics, University College, Dublin (Ireland) Fertility and population in Ireland, North and South (p. 259-279)

This paper reviews and interprets recent demographic trends and prospects in the two Irelands, North and South. We discuss both the influence of religion on demographic behaviour, and the impact of demographic trends on the distribution by religion. In the Republic of Ireland, we show that the long-standing gap in marital fertility between Catholics and others had virtually disappeared by the 1980s. In Northern Ireland the gap is still there in the 1990s, though considerably reduced. However, estimates of its size hinge on how the significant proportion of non-respondents to the census question on religion are allocated. We identify some peculiarities of the non-respondent population which imply that it was more 'Catholic' in 1991 than first reports suggested. The Catholic share of Northern Ireland's population may accordingly be larger - 42 to 43 per cent - than previously thought. In both communities, the future of the Catholic share depends less on fertility than on migration patterns. (IRELAND, NORTHERN IRELAND, CATHOLICS, DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.58.16 - English - John R. WILMOTH, Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, CA (U.S.A.) Are mortality rates falling at extremely high ages? An investigation based on a model proposed by Coale and Kisker (p. 281-295)

It is known that further mortality reductions in industrialized countries depend heavily on trends in mortality rates at the oldest ages. In this article, a model proposed by Coale and Kisker is used to investigate mortality trends at the extreme old age of 110 years. The most important conclusions are that (1) the form of the model proposed by Coale and Kisker fits observed mortality schedules very well indeed, and (2) the trend in mortality rates at extremely high ages has apparently been flat for men, but may have declined slightly for women during this century. (MORTALITY TRENDS, AGE-SPECIFIC RATE, AGED, MODELS)

96.58.17 - English - Michael R. HAINES, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY 13346 and National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138 (U.S.A.) Socio-economic differentials in infant and child mortality during mortality decline: England and Wales, 1890-1911 (p. 297-315)

In this paper data from the 1911 Census of the Fertility of Marriage of England and Wales are used to study patterns of mortality decline by socioeconomic characteristics, principally the occupation of husband. That census reported data on number of wives, children ever born, and children dead by marriage-duration cohorts for 190 non-overlapping occupations of husband. These results, along with those on number of rooms in the dwelling of the family are used to make indirect estimates of childhood mortality using the techniques described in United Nations, Manual X. This furnishes a basis to look at mortality decline for various social classes and occupational groups. The aggregate results indicate that social class in England and Wales during the 1890s and 1900s tended to be related to the speed of mortality decline: childhood mortality declined more rapidly in the higher and more privileged social class groups. But the results were neither nearly as strong nor as regular as those which predicted the level of mortality within any marriage-duration cohort. There was also a fairly regular and predictable gradient for the number of rooms in the home: child mortality was higher in families who lived in larger dwellings. Overall, social class (or occupation group), income, and urbanization were more successful in explaining mortality levels than time trends across occupations, although social class and the extent of urbanization did reasonably well in accounting for trends. Over a longer period, the transition in child mortality was under way by the 1890s, but its pace and timing varied in different occupations and social class groupings. Although absolute differences in infant mortality were reduced after about 1911, relative inequality persisted even as infant and child survival improved for all groups. (ENGLAND, WALES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, SOCIO-ECONOMIC DIFFERENTIALS, MORTALITY DECLINE)

96.58.18 - English - Akinrinola BANKOLE, Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ (U.S.A.)

Desired fertility and fertility behaviour among the Yoruba of Nigeria: A study of couple preferences and subsequent fertility (p. 317-328)

This paper examines the effects of the fertility desires of marital partners on subsequent fertility. In particular, we attempt to identify the role played by disagreement between the spouses in predicting the couple's fertility outcome. The results indicate that when husband and wife disagree about whether or not they want another child, the fertility desires of both partners are equally important in determining whether the couple actually have an additional birth. The dominance of men in sub-Saharan African societies tends to operate in the present study only in the initial stages of a couple's reproductive lives (associated with four or fewer children). This tendency is offset by the stronger influence of the wife's desire in the later stages. Thus, we conclude that fertility research in sub-Saharan Africa should solicit information from men and women, and any programme or policy that aims to promote fertility decline in the region must involve both sexes. (NIGERIA, DESIRED FAMILY SIZE, FERTILITY, INTERSPOUSE RELATIONSHIPS)

96.58.19 - English - Ulla LARSEN, Department of Population and International Health, Harvard School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115 (U.S.A.)

Differentials in infertility in Cameroon and Nigeria (p. 329-346)

Data from the World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey are used to analyze differences in infertility in Cameroon and Nigeria. It was assumed that specific patterns of behaviour are associated with higher infertility and that women's lives are greatly affected by their ability to reproduce. Both hypotheses are supported by multivariate analysis. Odds of being infertile were significantly higher for women who became sexually active in their teens, and those of having been married several times or of being currently unmarried are higher for infertile women. The patterns of infertility vary substantially within both Cameroon and Nigeria, but are very similar in the two countries. The most striking difference is that the incidence of infertility became less variable during the 1980s between different groups in Cameroon, but more diverse in Nigeria. Differences in the latter country are also more age-dependent than in the former. (NIGERIA, CAMEROON, INFERTILITY, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS)

96.58.20 - English - Nico KEILMAN, Division for Demography and Living Conditions, Statistics Norway, Oslo (Norway), and Evert VAN IMHOFF, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, The Hague (Netherlands) Cohort quantum as a function of time-dependant period quantum for non-repeatable events (p. 347-352)

The paper discusses translation formulae for time-dependent cohort and period quantum for non-repeatable events. Cohort quantum expressions are investigated for two cases: one in which period quantum, and another in which the sum of the period rates decreases linearly with time. In both cases the assumption is that period tempo does not change. Sufficient conditions are given for the situation in which the cohort quantum simply equals the period quantum measured at the time when the cohort reaches the mean age of the period schedule of age-specific rates, given that the period rate sum is a polynomial function of time. The paper takes up an issue which was unresolved in the article "Translation formulae for non-repeatable events", which appeared in the July 1994 issue of Population Studies. (METHODOLOGY, DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS)

NOVEMBER 1995 - VOLUME 49, NUMBER 3

96.58.21 - English - Wang FENG, University of Hawai and East-West Center (U.S.A.), James LEE, California Institute of Technology (U.S.A.), and Cameron CAMPBELL, University of Michigan (U.S.A.) Marital fertility control among the Qing nobility: Implications for two types of preventive checks (p. 383-400)

Demographers, as early as Malthus, have assumed that the preventive checks, delayed marriage and celibacy, were absent in traditional China. In this paper on the Qing (1644-1911) imperial lineage, we demonstrate that, instead, there may have been a different, more 'modern' preventive check: fertility control within marriage. Marital fertility of lineage couples during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries was low to moderate. Such low fertility was the product of three behavioural mechanisms: late starting, early stopping and, most significantly, long spacing. Couples apparently regulated their fertility according to their economic resources and the sex of their surviving children. Moreover, they did so, we suggest, by regulating their coital frequency. Deliberate fertility control, in other words, was already within the 'calculus of conscious choice' for some Chinese well before this century. The speed of contemporary sinitic fertility transitions may accordingly be attributed to the fact that they did not require a change in attitudes, only the diffusion of new incentives and effective technologies. (CHINA, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FAMILY PLANNING, COITAL FREQUENCY, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION)

96.58.22 - English - Naomi WILLIAMS and Chris GALLEY, Department of Geography, Roxby Building, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool, L69 3BX (U.K.) Urban-rural differentials in infant mortality in Victorian England (p. 401-420)

This paper examines the magnitude of urban-rural differentials in infant mortality in England during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and also compares the timing of decline for a selection of towns of varying size, and their immediate rural hinterlands. Most towns continued to experience short-term fluctuations in infant mortality until the very end of the nineteenth century; however, in some of the adjacent rural communities - where levels of infant mortality were much lower - conditions were sufficiently favourable to allow a continuous decline in infant mortality from at least the 1860s, if not before. The final part of the paper considers the causes of these patterns and their implications for explanations of infant mortality decline. (ENGLAND, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, INFANT MORTALITY, RURAL-URBAN DIFFERENTIALS)

96.58.23 - English - Frans VAN POPPEL, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, La Haye (Netherlands) Widows, widowers and remarriage in nineteenth-century Netherlands (p. 421-441)

This article examines the Dutch pattern of remarriage during the nineteenth century, using data from the vital registration system (marriages and deaths), and the population registers for the cities of Breda (South Netherlands) and Gouda (West Netherlands). A group of 6 500 widows and widowers were followed from the moment they were widowed until they either remarried or died whilst widowed. Migrating widows and widowers were also followed to their new destinations. Proportional hazards analysis shows that the principal factor which determined the probability of remarriage was age at bereavement. The probability of remarriage was much greater for men than for women, and for the childless than for widowed persons with children. If a widowed person with a child or children wished to remarry, he or she was more likely to do so, if the child was young. The situation of widowed persons who remarried was close to that of those who married for the first time; the partner had to be relatively young and childless. Neither occupation nor religion significantly altected the chance of remarriage during the period studied, but in Gouda the probabilities of remarriage were generally higher than in Breda. (NETHERLANDS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, WIDOWHOOD, REMARRIAGE)

96.58.24 - English - Carine RONSMANS, Maternal and Child Epidemiology Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, Londres, WC1E 7HT (U.K.) Patterns of clustering of child mortality in a rural area of Senegal (p. 443-461)

This study assesses the empirical evidence for the presence and the pattern of heterogeneity in child mortality between families in a rural area of Senegal that is apparently homogeneous with regard to the known determinants of mortality. The presence of heterogeneity is assessed by comparing the distribution of child deaths for women with a chance distribution. To weigh the relative contribution of causes of within-and between-family heterogeneity in the risk of child death to the observed pattern of clustering, detailed simulations in which empirical child-based data from the study are used, are undertaken. There are important variations in child mortality between families in this community, and the familial component in child mortality is almost entirely correlated with the size of the family. High-risk women experience repeated child deaths and repeated short birth intervals; they therefore have larger families. Heterogeneity in mortality and selective fertility, however, fail to explain the observed association between low mortality risk and small family size. (SENEGAL, INFANT MORTALITY, FAMILY SIZE)

96.58.25 - English - Constantijn W. PANIS and Lee A. LILLARD, RAND, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407 (U.S.A.) Child mortality in Malaysia: Explaining ethnics differences and the recent decline (p. 463-479)

Infant and child mortality rates have dropped sharply for all ethnic groups in Malaysia between 1950 and 1988, but persistent ethnic differences remain. In this article we assess the contribution of several potential reasons both for the decline and the remaining differences between the Malay and Chinese sub-populations. Increased use of health inputs is found to explain a substantial part of the decline, but increased education of mothers, and income growth are also important. Longer spacing between births, and, higher average age at birth as a result of lower fertility and higher age at marriage provide only a marginal direct contribution to the fall in mortality. We find that lower mortality among the Chinese is accounted for by their higher incomes and greater propensity to purchase medical care. We also control for self-selection among users of medical care, and find that those who use health care in Malaysia tend to be subject to higher-than-average risks. (MALAYSIA, INFANT MORTALITY, YOUTH MORTALITY, MORTALITY DECLINE, ETHNIC GROUPS)

96.58.26 - English - Monica DAS GUPTA, Center for Population and Development Studies, Harvard University, and Population Studies and Training Center, Brown University (U.S.A.)

Fertility decline in Punjab, India: Parallels with historical Europe (p. 481-500)

Two interesting features emerge from this study of fertility behaviour in Punjab. First, it brings out the common features of peasant life and demographic behaviour found in this developing-country setting and in historical Europe. As in much of Europe, marriage was regulated to adjust to the availability of land and other resources. It is interesting to note that the operation of this 'nuptiality valve' was quite consistent with a system of joint families and partible inheritance. Secondly, the findings suggest that we need to re-define what we understand to be the features of socioeconomic development which are crucial for fertility decline. Fertility began to decline steadily in this part of Punjab as early as 1940, at a time when the society was overwhelmingly agrarian, illiterate, and infant mortality was high with no access to modern contraceptive technology, as in historical Europe. The onset of the decline was brought about by development interventions which stabilized fluctuations in crop yields and mortality, thus radically improving stability of people's expectations. This study also points out the inapplicability of Mamdani's theories of fertility behaviour to the people he studied. (INDIA, EUROPE, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, NUPTIALITY, INFANT MORTALITY)

96.58.27 - English - Cheryl ELMAN, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University (U.S.A.), and Peter UHLENBERG, Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC (U.S.A.) Co-residence in the early twentieth century\: Elderly women in the United States and their children (p. 501-517)

A quiet demographic revolution has occurred during the twentieth century in the United States: the decline in intergenerational household sharing. Why were these living arrangements so common for older women early in the century? We examine the characteristics of adult kin who shared intergenerational households in 1910. Two nationally representative samples, of elderly mothers and their co-resident biological adult children were taken from the 1910 Census P.U.S. and linked to test general hypotheses relating to the determination of living arrangements. We find that kin availability influenced co-residence in two ways: by increasing the pool of children available and by facilitating strategic processes of kin selection based on quality of children. As kin availability increased, mothers chose security (especially the retention of headship) and a child's lack of competing obligations. (UNITED STATES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, AGED, MOTHER, COHABITATION, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION)

96.58.28 - English - David REHER, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Instituto de Demografia de Madrid (Spain)

Wasted investments: Some economic implications of childhood mortality patterns (p. 519-536)

In the present paper, the author argues that both structures and levels of childhood mortality patterns have important implications for family economies in historical and in developing societies. Where mortality is high or when its neonatal component is low relatively to the probabilities of death at higher ages, economies tend to suffer because parental investments in bearing and rearing the children who die are greater. These investments can best be measured in terms of time, especially mothers' time. In unfavourable mortality regimes, a far greater part of a woman's activity is dedicated to children who eventually die, thus limiting the time and energy available for other productive activities. In this way, adverse infant mortality patterns can be seen as an independent variable, an important contributing factor to the vicious circle of poverty and underdevelopment. (DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, INFANT MORTALITY, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, FEMALE EMPLOYMENT)

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