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United Kingdom (London) 58

POPULATION STUDIES

NOVEMBER 1997 - VOLUME 51, NUMBER 3

98.58.1 - English - Narayan SASTRY, RAND, 1700 Main Street, PO Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 (U.S.A.)

Family-level clustering of childhood mortality risk in Northeast Brazil (p. 245-261)

The clustering of childhood mortality risk by family in Northeast Brazil is investigated. The extent of family clustering is estimated before and after controlling for observed child and family demographic, reproductive, and socioeconomic characteristics and unobserved community characteristics. The study also investigates the extent to which the coefficient estimates and standard errors are altered with better controls for unobserved heterogeneity at the family level and at the community level. These controls are achieved through the use of a multilevel nested frailty model for survival data. The variance of family frailty is overstated by a factor of four when unobserved community effects are omitted. The family-level variance is not statistically significant in the multilevel model, although it is highly significant in the model that includes only the family frailty effect. Furthermore, ignoring the full design effects results in systematic bias in parameter estimates and standard errors. (BRAZIL, INFANT MORTALITY, CHILD MORTALITY, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, METHODOLOGY)

98.58.2 - English - Wendy POST, Frans VAN POPPEL, Evert VAN IMHOFF and Ellen KRUSE, NIDI, PO Box 11650, 2502 The Hague (Netherlands)

Reconstructing the extended kin-network in the Netherlands with genealogical data: Methods, problems, and results (p. 263-278)

This paper discusses the use of genealogical data for the study of the historical development of kinship networks in the Netherlands, 1830-1990. There are two main problems in using genealogies: the year of death is missing for a sizeable part of the research population; and the information available on all relevant branches is far from complete. A mixed estimation procedure was used to impute the missing years of death. Overcoming the second problem is more difficult; the only solution was to exclude individuals without children from the analysis. If these and other limitations of genealogies are not ignored and the effects of various types of under-registration are carefully assessed, genealogies can provide valuable information for our understanding of historical kinship patterns. The empirical results, using data on more than 160,000 persons, show that demographic changes in Dutch society during the last 160 years have significantly affected the kinship configuration. (NETHERLANDS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, KINSHIP, METHODOLOGY, GENEALOGY)

98.58.3 - English - Pradip K. MUHURI and Jane MENKEN, 2218 Cold Meadow Way, Silver Spring, MD 20906 (U.S.A.)

Adverse effects of next birth, gender, and family composition on child survival in rural Bangladesh (p. 279-294)

Child survival from ages one to five in Matlab, Bangladesh is related to the length of the birth-to-subsequent conception interval (BCI), family composition, health and family planning interventions, and socioeconomic conditions. The BCI relationship consists of short-term effects (related to the mother's pregnancy or the presence of a very young sibling) and long-term effects (associated with having a 6-18 month old younger sibling). Their impact is apparent at longer intervals than previously thought. Girls with at least one sister are especially vulnerable and all girls have greater risks when the next child comes along. We conclude that the health and family planning programme improves life chances of children, especially girls, directly through provision of care, and indirectly through prevention of unwanted births and longer child spacing. The differential allocation of resources to children, indicated by the strong relationship of child survival to the composition of the older sibling set, may indicate previously unrecognized receptivity to family planning. (BANGLADESH, CHILD SURVIVAL, FAMILY COMPOSITION, BIRTH INTERVALS, SEX DISCRIMINATION)

98.58.4 - English - Anne Hélène GAUTHIER, Department of Sociology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225-9081 (U.S.A.), and Jan HATZIUS, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, London (U.K.)

Family benefits and fertility: An econometric analysis (p. 295-306)

This paper addresses the question of whether higher governmental support for families has a positive effect on fertility by encouraging parents to have more children. The analysis is based on data for 22 industrialized countries and covers the period 1970 to 1990. Data are analysed using a fixed-effect econometric model with the sum of age-specific fertility rates as the dependent variable. The results show that family allowances have a positive and significant effect on fertility, while maternity leave benefits have no significant effect. Increasing the value of family allowances by 25% would result in an 0.6% increase in fertility level in the short run. In the long run this effect would be of the order of 4%, or about 0.07 children per woman on average. (DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, FAMILY ALLOWANCES, MATERNITY LEAVE, PRONATALIST POLICY, ECONOMIC MODELS)

98.58.5 - English - Monica DAS GUPTA, Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MS 02138 (U.S.A.), and P. N. Mari BHAT, Population Research Centre, Vidyagiri, Dharwad (India)

Fertility decline and increased manifestation of sex bias in India (p. 307-315)

The net effect of fertility decline on excess mortality of girls relative to that of boys in India is influenced by two countervailing forces: the reduction in the number of higher-parity births which reduces net excess mortality, and the intensification of parity specific discrimination, which increases it. Rising sex ratios of children between 1981 and 1991 indicate that the net effect of these forces was an increase in the excess mortality of girls during this period. An estimated one million or more were added to the excess deaths, through sex-selective abortion or infanticide. For each of these deaths, an estimated four excess deaths of girls took place after birth during 1981-91, bringing the total excess mortality resulting from discrimination to almost 5% of female live births. The pre-existing regional differences in sex bias persist, with the Northern States showing a greater increase in excess mortality, although the pace of fertility decline has been more rapid in the South. (INDIA, FERTILITY DECLINE, SEX DISCRIMINATION, EXCESS MORTALITY, FEMALE MORTALITY)

98.58.6 - English - Barbara S. OKUN, Department of Population Studies, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem 91905 (Israel)

E-mail : bsokun@vms.huji.ac.il.

Innovation and adaptation in fertility transition: Jewish immigrants to Israel from Muslim North Africa and the Middle East (p. 317-335)

Transplanted to a radically different economic and cultural environment, Jewish immigrants to Israel from Muslim North Africa and the Middle East reduced their cohort fertility by approximately 33% within 30 years, in the absence of any organized family planning programme. Following the framework specified by Carlsson (1969), we identify two fertility control strategies that contributed to their fertility decline: (1) innovation behaviour - adoption of the birth control pill, and (2) adaptive behaviour - increases in birth spacing at low parities. Military service was a vehicle of socialization for these new immigrants. We find important effects of female respondents' military service in explaining the adoption of innovative behaviour by this economically and culturally marginalized subpopulation. In contrast, military service is not important in explaining the spread of adaptive behaviour within this same subgroup. These findings thus suggest circumstances in which cultural barriers to the adoption of new behaviour are important. (ISRAEL, NORTHERN AFRICA, WESTERN ASIA, MIGRANT ASSIMILATION, FERTILITY DECLINE, BEHAVIOUR)

98.58.7 - English - John McDONALD and Eric RICHARDS, The Flinders University of South Australia, GPO Box 2100, Adelaide 5001 (Australia)

The Great Emigration of 1841: Recruitment for New South Wales in British emigration fields (p. 337-355)

In 1841 the colony of New South Wales offered an unprecedented number of heavily subsidised passages to British emigrants. It sought specific categories, particularly single young women, domestic servants, and agricultural labourers. The colony preferred English and Scottish rural immigrants. New South Wales attracted one fifth of all emigrants from the British Isles in 1841, but its selections were strongly biased towards southern Ireland. While the influence of the selection criteria, as well as local factors, was pronounced, this paper argues that the recruitment also expressed the changing propensities to emigrate within the regions of the British Isles. In particular it demonstrated the willingness of young Irish women to emigrate where facilities were provided to overcome their poverty. The immigration of 1841 was a turning point for Australia: it was the largest recruitment before the gold rushes of the 1850s and already signalled some of the main characteristics of Australian immigration history. (AUSTRALIA, UNITED KINGDOM, REGIONS, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, SELECTIVE IMMIGRATION)

MARCH 1998 - VOLUME 52, NUMBER 1

98.58.8 - English - Michael ANDERSON, University of Edinburgh (U.K.)

Fertility decline in Scotland, England and Wales, and Ireland: Comparisons from the 1911 census of fertility (p. 1-20)

Data on family size by year of marriage, age at marriage, and duration of marriage, from the 1911 Fertility Census, are compared between Scotland, England and Wales, Irish county boroughs, and the rest of Ireland. While means show significant intercountry differences, from the 1880s marked similarities are found across all the countries in the pattern of fertility decline, strongly suggesting significant fertility limitation in rural Ireland well before 1911. Noting the implications for the use of rural Ireland as a natural fertility population, the data are instead compared with the Coale-Trussell and Hinde-Woods schedules. The former provides more plausible results, which imply strong period rather than cohort effects in the fertility decline. Except in rural Ireland, little evidence is found for significant fertility limitation early in marriage among younger marrying couples, but many older marrying couples appear to have stopped childbearing at very low parities from an early date. (UNITED KINGDOM, IRELAND, FERTILITY DECLINE, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, MARRIAGE DURATION, AGE AT MARRIAGE)

98.58.9 - English - Anastasia J. GAGE, Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University (U.S.A.)

Premarital childbearing, unwanted fertility and maternity care in Kenya and Namibia (p. 21-34)

Analysis of data from the 1993 Kenya and 1992 Namibia Demographic and Health Surveys shows that premarital childbearing is an important risk factor for the under-utilization of maternity care. In both countries, women with premarital births are significantly less likely than those with marital births to seek prenatal care in the first trimester. This relationship is not explained by wantedness or maternal age. Wantedness is not a significant determinant of the timing of the first prenatal visit or the likelihood of institutional delivery, except in Kenya where women are less likely to deliver at a health facility if they are dissatisfied with the timing of the pregnancy. Ethnicity plays an important role in conditioning the premarital birth effect on prenatal and delivery care. This finding suggests that cultural attitudes may shape the level of kin and social support for unwed mothers and, in so doing, have a direct impact on their perceived barriers to care. (KENYA, NAMIBIA, PREMARITAL PREGNANCY, PRENATAL CARE, CULTURE)

98.58.10 - English - Jan ONDRICH, Center for Policy Research, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University (U.S.A.), and C. Katharina SPIESS, Prognos AG, Berlin (Germany)

Care of children in a low fertility setting: Transitions between home and market care for pre-school children in Germany (p. 35-48)

Because it may affect a nation's fertility, child care policy is an important policy instrument for low-fertility countries. Designing an effective policy requires an understanding of the determinants of demand for child care. This study uses a descriptive statistical approach to analyze the dynamics of demand for child care for preschool children in Germany. Age-specific and duration-specific hazard rates for leaving home care and for leaving market care are calculated for various risk groups. Hazard rate differences across risk groups indicate the presence of important factors affecting transitions. We examine household characteristics, the mother's employment status, and regional supply. We find that households with working mothers and fewer pre-school children have greater demand for market care. There also appears to be excess demand for market care. The hazard rates of subsequent children do not differ significantly from those of the first child. (GERMANY, DAY CARE CENTRES, DEMAND, EARLY CHILDHOOD)

98.58.11 - English - Patrick HEUVELINE, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania (U.S.A.)

"Between one and three million": Towards the demographic reconstruction of a decade of Cambodian history (1970-79) (p. 49-65)

Estimates of mortality in Cambodia during the Khmer Rouge regime (1975-79) range from 20,000 deaths according to former Khmer Rouge sources, to over three million victims according to Vietnamese government sources. This paper uses an unusual data source - the 1992 electoral lists registered by the United Nations - to estimate the population size after the Khmer Rouge regime and the extent of 'excess' mortality in the 1970s. These data also provide the first breakdown of population by single year of age, which allows analysis of the age structure of 'excess' mortality and inference of the relative importance of violence as a cause of death in that period. The estimates derived here are more comparable with the higher estimates made in the past. In addition, the analysis of likely causes of death that could have generated the age pattern of 'excess' mortality clearly shows a larger contribution of direct or violent mortality than has been previously recognized. (CAMBODIA, GENOCIDE, MORTALITY MEASUREMENT, ESTIMATES, AGE AT DEATH, CAUSES OF DEATH, VIOLENT DEATHS)

98.58.12 - English - Violetta HIONIDOU, Department of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (U.K.)

The adoption of fertility control on Mykonos, 1879-1959: Stopping, spacing or both? (p. 67-83)

This paper examines the timing and means of the fertility transition on the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1879 to 1959. By combining the results of family reconstitution with oral evidence, an unusual insight into the pathways of the fertility transition of this island population is offered. The paper concludes by outlining a model of the adoption of fertility control, a model which sees the transition from high to low fertility as a transition from spacing to stopping, and from innovation of methods to innovation of ideas. (GREECE, REGIONS, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, DEMOGRAPHIC MODELS)

98.58.13 - English - Christophe Z. GUILMOTO, Institut français, PB 33, Pondichery, 605 001 (India)

E-mail : instfran@giasmd01.vsni.net.in.

Institutions and migrations. Short-term versus long-term moves in rural West Africa (p. 85-103)

This paper is based on fieldwork done in 1992-93 in the Senegal River valley, a Sahelian region characterised by heavy out-migration for more than thirty years. As a result of this long history of human displacement, migration has now become a local institution of its own. More recently, the introduction of irrigation in an otherwise drought-prone area seems to have reduced the intensity of the phenomenon, but the momentum gathered by the local institution of migration means that the decrease of migration rates is likely to be very slow. The present analysis borrows some of its basic concepts from the new institutional economics and should therefore be seen as an illustration of how this perspective, quite effective in describing the complexity of social exchanges in rural societies, helps explain various determinants of migration. We will show, for example, that the two types of migration observed (short-term and long-term) respond similarly to common structural and family conditions, and appear to differ mainly when individual variables are taken into account. This feature underlines the crucial opposition between, on the one hand, individual determinants and, on the other, structural factors determined by economic or family characteristics. (SENEGAL, REGIONS, EMIGRATION, METHODOLOGY, MIGRATION DETERMINANTS)

98.58.14 - English - Jesús J. SÁNCHEZ, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590 (U.S.A.)

E-mail : jjsanche@psc.lsa.umich.edu.

Relationships between nuptiality and fertility: A case study of the Spanish province of Navarre, 1786-1991 (p. 105-115)

In this article we analyse the influence of age at marriage and percentage of definitive celibacy on marital and total fertility over the past two hundred years in the Spanish province of Navarre. A considerable percentage of the fall in marital fertility in the first half of the 20th century in rural Navarre was due to the postponement in women's age at marriage. On the other hand, Navarre offers many exceptions to the scenario often endorsed by researchers that sees marriage as the prime mechanism for regulating reproduction in traditional societies. While in the northern part of the province this mechanism did bring about the reduction of total fertility, in the southern part the fall was primarily a consequence of a fall in marital fertility. (SPAIN, PROVINCES, HISTORICAL DEMOGRAPHY, FERTILITY DECLINE, FERTILITY DETERMINANTS, AGE AT MARRIAGE)

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